MLB · resolved market
Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87ea9977129df05531e4072033e19e9af4046cd934a0f40f0ebb5cfffd5e6f36
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,054
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,932
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,054 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 45c | 9,108$4,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,023.28 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 55c | 7,146$3,931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,930.77 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 56c | 2,252$1,270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,270.26 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 45c | 2,231$994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,237.36 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 53c | 1,984$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,059.51 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d64…26cebacked Under | 56c | 1,790$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790.27 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 47c | 1,088$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.59 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 68c | 870$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.6 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 47c | 804.26$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.06 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 55c | 636.36$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 475 | 45.9%218 W · 257 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 53c | 578.62$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.39 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 56c | 553.93$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.43 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Under | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 56c | 386.61$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.91 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 56c | 325.09$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.79 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 59c | 318.36$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.84 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 32c | 309.76$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.64 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0717…835ebacked Under | 49c | 299.99$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.99 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 46c | 299$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.46 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 44c | 298.2$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.21 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked Over | 55c | 290.9$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 215 | 50.2%108 W · 107 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6f…be20backed Under | 32c | 281.66$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.53 | 234 | 54.7%128 W · 106 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 47c | 250.75$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.9 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 55c | 192.73$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x085b…ab9fbacked Under | 32c | 155.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.89 | 339 | 34.5%117 W · 222 L | -9.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Under | 47c | 150$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 416 | 37.5%156 W · 260 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 53c | 150$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.5 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 51c | 131$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.41 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 373 | 57.4%214 W · 159 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff68…8379backed Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 269 | 40.5%109 W · 160 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 59c | 90.9$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.63 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Over | 59c | 85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.15 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Under | 49c | 81.84$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.84 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Under | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b4…7d38backed Under | 41c | 48.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Under | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 254 | 48.4%123 W · 131 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce2…957fbacked Under | 48c | 41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +48%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 52c | 41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x891d…b19fbacked Over | 58c | 38.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 127 | 46.5%59 W · 68 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90a9…1bf1backed Over | 55c | 35.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76c7…1ed0backed Over | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.31per pick | 61cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -23.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 44c | 27.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Over | 59c | 24.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 541 | 52.1%282 W · 259 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 46c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Over | 53c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…abe3backed Over | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 351 | 49.3%173 W · 178 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc56b…772abacked Over | 52c | 19.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 107 | 59.8%64 W · 43 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdda1…7b5ebacked Over | 58c | 17.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 86 | 51.2%44 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore OriolesDetroit Tigers won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 5.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore OriolesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.