NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Grizzlies: O/U 231.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a2bbf0478c6074a538a0e0198da15eb85a71f89758bf1a5816a6c9466b0e310
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,238
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,703
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,238 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed Under | 51c | 19,040$9,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,329.43 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 8,292$4,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,044.33 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 49c | 7,000$3,430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,430 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Over | 51c | 5,385$2,746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,746.35 | 477 | 51.8%247 W · 230 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Under | 52c | 4,000$2,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,920 | 477 | 48.8%233 W · 244 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Under | 53c | 2,063$1,096 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$966.61 | 180 | 47.8%86 W · 94 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd14a…e912backed Over | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Over | 49c | 1,950$956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$955.5 | 303 | 51.8%157 W · 146 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 47c | 1,563$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734.61 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60b6…eb2bbacked Over | 41c | 1,287$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.21 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -10.8wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…8cd6backed Over | 49c | 1,075$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.87 | 433 | 48.5%210 W · 223 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 53c | 849.99$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.49 | 646 | 51.7%334 W · 312 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Under | 62c | 659.44$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253 | 381 | 51.2%195 W · 186 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Over | 47c | 637.85$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.79 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked Under | 51c | 600$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -5.6wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Under | 55c | 454.91$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.91 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec0…f7aabacked Under | 51c | 444.88$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.99 | 142 | 54.9%78 W · 64 L | +9.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 57c | 387$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.41 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 45c | 308.91$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.01 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 47c | 290.17$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.48 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Over | 51c | 283.95$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.81 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f7…c4e5backed Under | 57c | 280$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.4 | 156 | 56.4%88 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b2…6d9dbacked Over | 45c | 220.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4b…a250backed Under | 52c | 220$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.6 | 344 | 47.4%163 W · 181 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…1ed3backed Over | 48c | 214.43$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.93 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Over | 48c | 199.99$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 418 | 48.3%202 W · 216 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Under | 42c | 119$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.02 | 390 | 18.2%71 W · 319 L | +27.6wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfde8…c52fbacked Over | 47c | 116.3$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.66 | 185 | 36.2%67 W · 118 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b35…a749backed Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 364 | 23.4%85 W · 279 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d28…932abacked Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 248 | 35.1%87 W · 161 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec4…e67abacked Over | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb589…33d4backed Under | 41c | 51.66$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.48 | 353 | 26.6%94 W · 259 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Under | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…f4c5backed Over | 35c | 39.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd729…d97ebacked Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 415 | 56.9%236 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked Under | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 197 | 56.3%111 W · 86 L | +8.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefb2…b043backed Over | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…2ee8backed Over | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc228…7a7dbacked Over | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Over | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 482 | 55%265 W · 217 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 47c | 28.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fd…7d56backed Under | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf3…2b57backed Over | 47c | 25.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -4.2wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs. Grizzlies: O/U 231.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Thunder (-10.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-11.5)Thunder won
- Thunder vs. GrizzliesThunder won
- Thunder vs. Grizzlies: 1H MoneylineGrizzlies won
- Thunder vs. Grizzlies: 1H O/U 112.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Grizzlies: 1H O/U 113.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Grizzlies: 1H O/U 117.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Grizzlies: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Grizzlies: O/U 232.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Grizzlies: O/U 233.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Grizzlies: O/U 234.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Grizzlies: O/U 235.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.