NBA · resolved market
Spread: Warriors (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a7cbe5846f322aafa2c54324f60e2e4752acfcd70c08073c8c61efdd9052a1c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sunsof Warriors, Suns
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,269
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,014
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,269 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Suns | 43c | 2,159$928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,230.48 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x443d…017fbacked Warriors | 57c | 1,168$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666 | 235 | 50.2%118 W · 117 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…2d1abacked Warriors | 56c | 799.71$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.84 | 489 | 57.5%281 W · 208 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Warriors | 34c | 770.7$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.04 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed Warriors | 57c | 691.63$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.23 | 152 | 44.1%67 W · 85 L | -14.4wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Suns | 44c | 584.98$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.59 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a3…ea61backed Suns | 44c | 317.83$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Suns | 44c | 268$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.08 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Warriors | 56c | 268$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.08 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Warriors | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 612 | 53.1%325 W · 287 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Warriors | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9160…de3dbacked Warriors | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 84 | 52.4%44 W · 40 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc7…31c0backed Warriors | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -5.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec1…dd29backed Warriors | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 225 | 56.9%128 W · 97 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca8…ddddbacked Warriors | 56c | 35.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 278 | 46.8%130 W · 148 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe760…aadcbacked Warriors | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 152 | 48.7%74 W · 78 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7481…279fbacked Warriors | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 156 | 51.9%81 W · 75 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Warriors | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Suns | 52c | 19.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Warriors (-4.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Warriors (-3.5)Suns won
- Spread: Warriors (-5.5)Suns won
- Spread: Warriors (-6.5)Suns won
- Suns vs. WarriorsWarriors won
- Suns vs. Warriors: 1H MoneylineSuns won
- Suns vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Suns vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 117.5Over won
- Suns vs. Warriors: O/U 227.5Over won
- Suns vs. Warriors: O/U 228.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.