NBA · resolved market
Suns vs. Warriors: O/U 227.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1962b1bbd4a4914a775120d546089a73eff675b7af5badbff9827120903749d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,577
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,615
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,577 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 52c | 9,000$4,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,679.95 | 662 | 50.8%336 W · 326 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 5,397$2,552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,844.25 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 48c | 2,093$1,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,089.12 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…ae9abacked Under | 54c | 1,898$1,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,024.92 | 296 | 52.7%156 W · 140 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 49c | 1,224$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.24 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3242…0e0bbacked Over | 50c | 1,100$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 212 | 47.2%100 W · 112 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 48c | 1,005$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.6 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae53…d80bbacked Under | 50c | 483$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.5 | 409 | 52.1%213 W · 196 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Over | 48c | 350$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182 | 623 | 47.5%296 W · 327 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed Over | 50c | 262$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131 | 566 | 46.5%263 W · 303 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 47c | 250$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.5 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92f8…bc77backed Over | 50c | 236$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 48c | 232$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.64 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 50c | 202.67$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.34 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 50c | 122.23$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.1 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9270…7c9ebacked Over | 48c | 119.22$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.99 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15a3…718ebacked Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 113 | 51.3%58 W · 55 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8af0…1929backed Under | 49c | 99.47$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.56 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Under | 52c | 96.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 46c | 84.35$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.55 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x474b…c5b1backed Under | 67c | 72.3$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.56 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47cd…1f8bbacked Under | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 89 | 58.4%52 W · 37 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x243c…9ae0backed Under | 54c | 61.11$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 383 | 47%180 W · 203 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed Over | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 184 | 53.3%98 W · 86 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5f…8bfdbacked Under | 54c | 46.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2000…df78backed Over | 49c | 44.96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.93 | 80 | 53.8%43 W · 37 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Over | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 312 | 50.3%157 W · 155 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Over | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 479 | 48%230 W · 249 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5373…e46bbacked Under | 67c | 37.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 49c | 35.58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa709…8d1dbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0501…61ecbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Suns vs. Warriors: O/U 227.5this page
- 1H Spread: Warriors (-3.5)Suns won
- Spread: Warriors (-4.5)Suns won
- Spread: Warriors (-5.5)Suns won
- Spread: Warriors (-6.5)Suns won
- Suns vs. WarriorsWarriors won
- Suns vs. Warriors: 1H MoneylineSuns won
- Suns vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Suns vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 117.5Over won
- Suns vs. Warriors: O/U 228.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.