NBA · resolved market
Spread: Warriors (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2dd3e7b39f09b08832bc7513955f933f2bfb0a3d1bb967bbee11c7a097a4a5f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sunsof Warriors, Suns
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,865
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,241
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,865 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Warriors | 53c | 20,000$10,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,600 | 513 | 50.1%257 W · 256 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Suns | 47c | 11,150$5,243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,906.85 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Warriors | 52c | 10,460$5,439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,439.44 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae8…c2a8backed Suns | 47c | 10,105$4,749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,355.77 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +12.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Suns | 48c | 10,000$4,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,200 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Suns | 47c | 4,255$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,255.15 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…4a30backed Warriors | 54c | 4,104$2,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,222 | 767 | 46.4%356 W · 411 L | -16.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Warriors | 53c | 3,502$1,845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,845.08 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Warriors | 52c | 2,613$1,369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,369.5 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5520…32ffbacked Warriors | 2c | 2,500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Suns | 46c | 1,284$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696.2 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Suns | 45c | 845$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.57 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68bf…3e67backed Suns | 52c | 750$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -6.9wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…3a3fbacked Warriors | 54c | 703.7$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3482…98e3backed Warriors | 49c | 612.86$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Warriors | 32c | 520$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164 | 1,384 | 39.4%545 W · 839 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Suns | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 736 | 49.9%367 W · 369 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb116…940abacked Suns | 70c | 500$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Suns | 48c | 455.47$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.07 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa35b…0eccbacked Suns | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.16 | 245 | 56.3%138 W · 107 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Suns | 48c | 325$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9738backed Warriors | 53c | 300$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 958 | 48.7%467 W · 491 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb1…984ebacked Suns | 50c | 300$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.02 | 160 | 52.5%84 W · 76 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Warriors | 50c | 283$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.5 | 1,055 | 49.9%526 W · 529 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Warriors | 17c | 270.36$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.6 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Suns | 48c | 270$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.4 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x740b…1d47backed Suns | 77c | 259.41$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.41 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Suns | 47c | 250$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.5 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e06…5a9bbacked Warriors | 60c | 230$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.54 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f17…2332backed Suns | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 121 | 55.4%67 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Suns | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed Suns | 46c | 200$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109 | 184 | 53.3%98 W · 86 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…1943backed Suns | 52c | 190.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.49 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Suns | 48c | 186$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.72 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Warriors | 53c | 180$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.4 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc081…224dbacked Suns | 61c | 164.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.84 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21b4…e064backed Suns | 49c | 163.27$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.27 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Suns | 47c | 155.07$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.18 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…9c1ebacked Warriors | 9c | 153.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 44 | 6.8%3 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf527…366bbacked Warriors | 53c | 145.34$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.52 | 106 | 41.5%44 W · 62 L | +10.3wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3ede…6c27backed Suns | 47c | 144.44$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 451 | 51.4%232 W · 219 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Suns | 39c | 129.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.92 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Warriors | 32c | 113.74$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.74 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8776…1ca3backed Warriors | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Suns | 48c | 110.89$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.66 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Suns | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 628 | 48.7%306 W · 322 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Warriors | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Suns | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 373 | 57.4%214 W · 159 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Warriors | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.49 | 222 | 43.7%97 W · 125 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0495…c68fbacked Warriors | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb58…4acebacked Warriors | 60c | 83.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 94 | 51.1%48 W · 46 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Suns | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 364 | 50.8%185 W · 179 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7897…0842backed Suns | 52c | 76.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.28 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0b…9672backed Warriors | 42c | 74.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.18 | 98 | 28.6%28 W · 70 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4c…2e02backed Suns | 73c | 68.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 96 | 60.4%58 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0709…f336backed Suns | 60c | 66.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.98 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43b3…74cfbacked Suns | 45c | 62.1$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.15 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Suns | 47c | 52.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.65 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e5…5a2cbacked Suns | 49c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 246 | 53.3%131 W · 115 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…d00fbacked Suns | 50c | 48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 162 | 43.8%71 W · 91 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cdb…7a7abacked Warriors | 51c | 44.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Suns | 48c | 42.75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb4…8830backed Suns | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ca…e072backed Suns | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x733e…c558backed Suns | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Warriors | 70c | 37.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 1,113 | 41.6%463 W · 650 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe56e…0bb4backed Warriors | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 242 | 48.3%117 W · 125 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd663…05ecbacked Warriors | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Suns | 47c | 31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1351…bebcbacked Suns | 48c | 31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Suns | 47c | 27.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…c893backed Warriors | 75c | 26.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb308…19debacked Warriors | 53c | 25.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -4.5wins | -0.24per pick | 50cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b1…7b8cbacked Suns | 49c | 24.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Suns | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Suns | 48c | 21.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd395…3731backed Suns | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 91 | 35.2%32 W · 59 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd501…826abacked Warriors | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Warriors (-5.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Warriors (-3.5)Suns won
- Spread: Warriors (-4.5)Suns won
- Spread: Warriors (-6.5)Suns won
- Suns vs. WarriorsWarriors won
- Suns vs. Warriors: 1H MoneylineSuns won
- Suns vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Suns vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 117.5Over won
- Suns vs. Warriors: O/U 227.5Over won
- Suns vs. Warriors: O/U 228.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.