NBA · resolved market
Wizards vs. Rockets
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a7d186a3834b678d03b915574b378b16d1d00fadb4ada85483992804707646a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rocketsof Wizards, Rockets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $98,487
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $106,784
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $98,487 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x068a…331ebacked Wizards | 14c | 28,571$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Wizards | 1c | 7,824$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.15 | 1,035 | 1.1%11 W · 1,024 L | -24.4wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -90.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44f7…266fbacked Wizards | 2c | 4,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.52 | 457 | 3.5%16 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3168…6734backed Wizards | 5c | 3,087$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.62 | 191 | 37.7%72 W · 119 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cee…1832backed Wizards | 12c | 2,890$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.76 | 191 | 51.8%99 W · 92 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b4…e0febacked Wizards | 14c | 2,822$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa5…ff32backed Wizards | 16c | 2,497$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.49 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba48…6d5fbacked Wizards | 14c | 2,095$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.98 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Wizards | 17c | 2,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 1,090 | 35.8%390 W · 700 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8c…726cbacked Wizards | 13c | 1,723$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.17 | 133 | 41.4%55 W · 78 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ed…dc9ebacked Wizards | 15c | 1,333$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba2…18a5backed Wizards | 16c | 1,250$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 91 | 30.8%28 W · 63 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4f…4afebacked Wizards | 13c | 1,180$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffb8…8027backed Wizards | 23c | 1,095$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d5…124bbacked Wizards | 15c | 1,063$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.45 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +103.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Wizards | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1,290 | 44%567 W · 723 L | +35.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Wizards | 13c | 913.9$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.03 | 1,554 | 37.3%579 W · 975 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5c…be69backed Wizards | 16c | 812.5$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 279 | 39.8%111 W · 168 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…4fd1backed Wizards | 16c | 804.08$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa657…2e3cbacked Wizards | 16c | 625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc252…5bb4backed Wizards | 15c | 622.2$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.33 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfea4…9a66backed Wizards | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -63%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x603a…fc8bbacked Wizards | 13c | 394.9$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1b…7ccabacked Wizards | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1772…bb32backed Wizards | 16c | 321.38$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.42 | 114 | 28.9%33 W · 81 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Rockets | 79c | 303.13$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.48 | 615 | 32.2%198 W · 417 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x698c…5f40backed Wizards | 14c | 267.49$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f32…8463backed Wizards | 13c | 254.72$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.11 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf9b…fe0fbacked Wizards | 7c | 246.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 136 | 11.8%16 W · 120 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ee…373ebacked Wizards | 13c | 225.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 532 | 50.4%268 W · 264 L | -19.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3697…f189backed Wizards | 14c | 214.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 652 | 18.4%120 W · 532 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed Wizards | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 71 | 19.7%14 W · 57 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0026…cd66backed Wizards | 12c | 199.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 114 | 28.1%32 W · 82 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b21…41fabacked Wizards | 11c | 199.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb10c…5856backed Wizards | 15c | 198.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2805…76edbacked Wizards | 13c | 197.95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 84 | 39.3%33 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…5419backed Wizards | 16c | 187.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -5.8wins | -0.14per pick | 65cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf2…b7bcbacked Wizards | 12c | 182.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd1…b023backed Wizards | 17c | 151.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fdd…0b07backed Wizards | 15c | 149.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 103 | 34%35 W · 68 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba19…0f73backed Wizards | 14c | 144.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd968…bd18backed Wizards | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 83 | 34.9%29 W · 54 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e0…6900backed Wizards | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…5df8backed Wizards | 24c | 136.32$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.72 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x851b…1b79backed Wizards | 17c | 134.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d9…b416backed Wizards | 15c | 133.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab68…1bb1backed Wizards | 15c | 132.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 159 | 11.9%19 W · 140 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46c7…c0f2backed Wizards | 11c | 125.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42dd…48b7backed Wizards | 15c | 125$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66db…7afbbacked Wizards | 15c | 110.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -4.7wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f98…9488backed Wizards | 15c | 108$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cce…6e85backed Wizards | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 220 | 39.1%86 W · 134 L | +14.0wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf93b…bb37backed Wizards | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 276 | 42%116 W · 160 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0c…9d02backed Wizards | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 261 | 24.1%63 W · 198 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f14…b199backed Wizards | 14c | 91.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ea…002fbacked Wizards | 14c | 86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd7…925ebacked Wizards | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3c…33c7backed Wizards | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc1…06edbacked Wizards | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 883 | 35.3%312 W · 571 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c9…eeafbacked Wizards | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ad…d555backed Wizards | 19c | 51.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 51 | 66.7%34 W · 17 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.