TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Matas Buzelis: Points O/U 16.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,004

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,004 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5b45…9723backed No66c1,695$1,127 inWon+$568.0126069.2%180 W · 80 L+9.6wins+0.04per pick66cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb48e…d489backed Yes26c1,271$330 inLost-$3305440.7%22 W · 32 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+26.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6dd9…bfe8backed No74c1,030$767 inWon+$263.265762.3%409 W · 248 L+27.9wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4488…579cbacked Yes31c982.91$308 inLost-$308.577549.2%381 W · 394 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f1e…0673backed Yes31c861$267 inLost-$267.492927.6%8 W · 21 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9719…6ffabacked No67c850$569 inWon+$280.56669.7%46 W · 20 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd529…f0d4backed No72c673.84$485 inWon+$188.671,08563.6%690 W · 395 L+86.7wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+13%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7205…3377backed No73c584.41$425 inWon+$159.4845657%260 W · 196 L+44.6wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+15.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x10ef…bff0backed Yes35c544.81$191 inLost-$190.62560%3 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.27per pick33cpaid+85.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6715…5085backed Yes27c333.33$90 inLost-$9010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x043f…ca25backed No68c325$221 inWon+$1046361.9%39 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7db8…bbcebacked Yes33c305.02$100 inLost-$1001952.6%10 W · 9 L+2.8wins+0.15per pick38cpaid+34.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x16ef…3792backed Yes32c259.38$83 inLost-$833729.7%11 W · 26 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-13.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed No70c198$139 inWon+$59.490863.9%580 W · 328 L+80.6wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+20.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0967…164cbacked Yes28c178.56$50 inLost-$502458.3%14 W · 10 L+2.7wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+27.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe5df…6136backed Yes25c160$40 inLost-$40520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-25.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x133a…f9d1backed No71c100$70 inWon+$29.595260.2%573 W · 379 L+37.0wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x89fa…6ab0backed Yes33c84.85$28 inLost-$281421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-31.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5430…c1d3backed No67c75$50 inWon+$24.7522774.4%169 W · 58 L+22.5wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+15.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdda2…ba18backed Yes26c62.22$16 inLost-$16.315131.4%16 W · 35 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa528…2499backed No73c51.44$38 inWon+$13.8983158.1%483 W · 348 L+18.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x345d…4e41backed No71c37.57$27 inWon+$10.99267.4%62 W · 30 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+9.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No64c33$21 inWon+$11.974,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf56e…a853backed No74c22.73$17 inWon+$64393%40 W · 3 L+12.5wins+0.29per pick64cpaid+65.4%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xabdd…2d96backed No73c20$15 inWon+$5.460267.3%405 W · 197 L+46.2wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+11.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.