TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Bulls vs. Suns

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Bullsof Bulls, Suns
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,466,045

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,466,045 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 742 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8e43…a3cdbacked Bulls17c214,704$36,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178,204.0243542.8%186 W · 249 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Bulls18c100,000$18,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81,999.687144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27cb…169ebacked Bulls17c91,235$15,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75,824.7327424.5%67 W · 207 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Bulls18c79,789$14,039 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65,750.154,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe524…d34fbacked Bulls17c70,000$11,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58,10010930.3%33 W · 76 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa710…23c4backed Bulls18c54,645$9,836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44,808.6532653.1%173 W · 153 L+19.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Bulls56c49,262$27,753 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,508.281,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Suns76c46,234$35,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,015.9466248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Bulls43c43,051$18,722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,329.314,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8716…bd57backed Bulls17c41,168$6,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,168.9141832.8%137 W · 281 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked Suns79c30,850$24,348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,348.4728554%154 W · 131 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Bulls16c23,381$3,741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,639.621,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Bulls21c23,196$4,792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,404.251,39026%361 W · 1,029 L-5.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Bulls47c21,907$10,342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,564.738,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38c2…d3a7backed Suns69c20,081$13,794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,794.3222458.9%132 W · 92 L+10.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Bulls17c20,000$3,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,60054539.6%216 W · 329 L-28.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x68ca…9f73backed Bulls17c20,000$3,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,60032540.3%131 W · 194 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Suns25c20,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0001,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99e4…e4c4backed Suns25c18,375$4,594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,593.7514663.7%93 W · 53 L+11.6wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Suns26c17,939$4,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,620.373,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Bulls51c17,023$8,715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,308.631,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Suns36c16,209$5,886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,885.8493148.4%451 W · 480 L+34.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Bulls79c15,855$12,595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,259.421,09640.9%448 W · 648 L+34.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Bulls24c15,561$3,727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,833.932,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Suns26c15,287$3,984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,983.875,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Suns57c15,000$8,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,549.9934456.7%195 W · 149 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Bulls45c14,667$6,659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,007.671,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Suns55c14,045$7,685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,684.583,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdec4…b675backed Suns61c11,463$7,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,000825%2 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-46.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb034…4c81backed Suns58c11,203$6,479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,479.19742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Suns53c10,692$5,701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,700.5478445.8%359 W · 425 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b9a…5f69backed Suns1c10,500$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.55213.8%20 W · 501 L+0.6wins0.00per pick4cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Suns25c10,000$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5001,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb6b…ab0dbacked Suns0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick5cpaid+400%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Suns25c9,979$2,487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,487.0277348.5%375 W · 398 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdac…f7e2backed Bulls36c9,964$3,577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,387.0819136.1%69 W · 122 L-15.3wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-22.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfecb…19babacked Suns69c9,518$6,541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,540.6611452.6%60 W · 54 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb4…48bebacked Bulls41c9,203$3,728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,474.795858.6%34 W · 24 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdab7…24ecbacked Bulls71c9,126$6,454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,671.8516065%104 W · 56 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick64cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d36…68fdbacked Bulls43c8,220$3,541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,679.2112740.9%52 W · 75 L-15.3wins-0.12per pick53cpaid-22.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x67ac…edf1backed Suns41c8,093$3,296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,295.548036.3%29 W · 51 L-8.1wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-24.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Bulls19c8,050$1,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,520.51,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Suns0c8,010$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.98820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Bulls19c8,000$1,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,48032039.4%126 W · 194 L-1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4935…fc12backed Bulls18c8,000$1,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,5806333.3%21 W · 42 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-18.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4738…df78backed Suns50c8,000$4,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,039.8417150.3%86 W · 85 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0441…b3aabacked Bulls18c7,500$1,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,1508441.7%35 W · 49 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+0.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf819…d410backed Suns74c6,887$5,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,100.0326444.7%118 W · 146 L-15.8wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-15.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Suns62c6,461$4,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,012.9376850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Suns79c6,409$5,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,067.1651354.2%278 W · 235 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Bulls73c6,308$4,594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,713.851,20051.6%619 W · 581 L+66.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Bulls45c6,000$2,671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,32948845.3%221 W · 267 L+18.9wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Bulls53c5,803$3,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,746.153,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae0f…f647backed Bulls76c5,721$4,368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,352.68451.2%43 W · 41 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9852…111abacked Suns65c5,171$3,336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,3368953.9%48 W · 41 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb4f…f2a1backed Suns70c5,056$3,524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,524.191478.6%11 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.15per pick64cpaid+31%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x803e…2059backed Bulls19c5,000$950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,0501942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Suns57c5,000$2,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,849.991,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4137…586cbacked Bulls17c5,000$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,149.9847043.8%206 W · 264 L-22.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7aa8…56dbbacked Suns28c4,969$1,377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,376.9348956.4%276 W · 213 L+31.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+5.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8c5b…aab5backed Suns17c4,793$816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$815.957429.7%22 W · 52 L-9.6wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-40%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Bulls36c4,786$1,705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,080.851,22637.4%458 W · 768 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x63e1…4854backed Bulls18c4,765$858 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,907.32835.7%10 W · 18 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-20.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Bulls48c4,709$2,256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,453.4885344%375 W · 478 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14f7…232cbacked Bulls19c4,131$785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,346.45728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick17cpaid+34.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x742c…acc0backed Bulls35c4,058$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,657.746841.2%28 W · 40 L-4.6wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-21.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf176…91d0backed Bulls19c4,000$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,2401643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5077…4e7cbacked Suns54c3,800$2,052 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,051.989733%32 W · 65 L-6.3wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-30.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x83e1…b37bbacked Suns64c3,699$2,367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,367.0816550.3%83 W · 82 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5d1…cdc9backed Suns25c3,682$902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902.093729.7%11 W · 26 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-18.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aab…c4ddbacked Suns73c3,567$2,596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,596.167839.7%31 W · 47 L-6.1wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-19.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Bulls49c3,539$1,734 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,805.011,38439.4%545 W · 839 L+4.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6de…95e8backed Bulls41c3,500$1,435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,06523047%108 W · 122 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8150…e7f1backed Suns6c3,483$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.985632.1%18 W · 38 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-24.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f16…0246backed Bulls45c3,395$1,524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,871.0338649.5%191 W · 195 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f4b…bb93backed Suns59c3,385$1,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,997.149354.8%51 W · 42 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-13.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x300c…7708backed Suns9c3,329$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.576238.7%24 W · 38 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x19d8…1691backed Suns22c3,000$665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$665.4772241.4%299 W · 423 L+2.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Suns32c2,961$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95064944.7%290 W · 359 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8996…fbcebacked Bulls18c2,820$508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,312.421649.1%106 W · 110 L+18.8wins+0.09per pick40cpaid+18.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Bulls18c2,778$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,277.7848938.7%189 W · 300 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d93…2cf1backed Suns55c2,729$1,501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,500.915350.9%27 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71dd…31ebbacked Bulls61c2,669$1,629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,040.392100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+44.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b64…eaf4backed Suns73c2,611$1,893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,893.0226842.9%115 W · 153 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c16…4b37backed Bulls34c2,608$881 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,727.7729352.6%154 W · 139 L+14.1wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+26%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a92…6941backed Suns29c2,603$747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$747.38944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c8c…c7b4backed Suns59c2,594$1,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,54035650%178 W · 178 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Suns69c2,588$1,783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,782.762,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed Bulls18c2,500$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,05013642.6%58 W · 78 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid+14.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Bulls19c2,500$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,02595641.7%399 W · 557 L+1.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Bulls19c2,481$471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,009.483,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe509…4245backed Bulls53c2,452$1,304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,147.6710653.8%57 W · 49 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xffd1…4649backed Suns18c2,421$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.61933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-42.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8443…5119backed Suns62c2,419$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5004748.9%23 W · 24 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-16.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b1f…6500backed Bulls73c2,387$1,740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$647.3826949.1%132 W · 137 L+0.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Bulls28c2,310$657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,652.8161939.6%245 W · 374 L-17.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-18.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbde3…4a49backed Bulls44c2,200$968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,23227251.1%139 W · 133 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5993…33a2backed Suns61c2,194$1,346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,34638046.6%177 W · 203 L-1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd506…4f0ebacked Suns54c2,165$1,178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,178.281973.7%14 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick66cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Suns18c2,164$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40065339.5%258 W · 395 L-24.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.