Tennis · resolved market
Rolex Paris Masters: Flavio Cobolli vs Tomas Machac
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ad2993788a0e1f89570cea1d5295cea8ccf88011d434ac4dd961d82200e7ff2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cobolliof Cobolli, Machac
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $116,150
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $162,059
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $116,150 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7606…2836backed Cobolli | 54c | 27,559$14,882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,677.14 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x620b…d4adbacked Machac | 33c | 12,333$4,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,073.33 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd297…2c15backed Cobolli | 55c | 7,536$4,165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,370.81 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2699…29f6backed Machac | 45c | 5,301$2,406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,406.3 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Machac | 45c | 3,892$1,759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,759.39 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked Machac | 44c | 3,454$1,510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,510.33 | 158 | 32.3%51 W · 107 L | -13.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Machac | 15c | 2,875$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.21 | 257 | 22.2%57 W · 200 L | -12.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Cobolli | 53c | 2,800$1,484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,316 | 1,446 | 48.8%706 W · 740 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…6f22backed Cobolli | 54c | 2,778$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,277.78 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5916…8d4fbacked Cobolli | 57c | 1,946$1,104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$841.76 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x106f…7bb2backed Machac | 46c | 1,859$855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4eb…18c4backed Cobolli | 54c | 1,859$1,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$855.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Machac | 45c | 1,400$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.53 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde44…cb51backed Cobolli | 56c | 1,257$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.39 | 134 | 35.1%47 W · 87 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed32…20d6backed Cobolli | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51c6…c26dbacked Machac | 18c | 1,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f0dfbacked Cobolli | 55c | 972.73$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.73 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Machac | 46c | 933.53$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.37 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Cobolli | 53c | 849$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.54 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Machac | 16c | 809.39$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.43 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Machac | 48c | 765.77$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.4 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa21d…a769backed Cobolli | 54c | 756.59$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.03 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Machac | 15c | 729.83$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.07 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74e6…a857backed Cobolli | 54c | 555.56$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Machac | 46c | 499.95$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.98 | 576 | 45.5%262 W · 314 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…cf15backed Cobolli | 54c | 400$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 303 | 39.3%119 W · 184 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27df…e67cbacked Machac | 48c | 364.53$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9b…eb8dbacked Cobolli | 52c | 290$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.2 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d26…ccb8backed Cobolli | 53c | 276$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.72 | 137 | 62.8%86 W · 51 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bd…df80backed Cobolli | 54c | 266.67$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.67 | 227 | 44.5%101 W · 126 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x550a…0b68backed Machac | 48c | 249.58$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4728…f975backed Machac | 49c | 234.69$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9999…9868backed Cobolli | 54c | 222.22$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.22 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…f8bebacked Machac | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0727…ec27backed Machac | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Machac | 47c | 199.99$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 189 | 43.4%82 W · 107 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…e4a1backed Cobolli | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Machac | 44c | 181.63$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.55 | 730 | 48.8%356 W · 374 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Cobolli | 45c | 178.64$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.25 | 421 | 41.8%176 W · 245 L | -12.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d28…932abacked Cobolli | 52c | 149.98$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.99 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c8d…b575backed Machac | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Cobolli | 55c | 127.97$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.97 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…4d48backed Cobolli | 55c | 123.51$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.58 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.29per pick | 56cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Machac | 46c | 120$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 228 | 40.4%92 W · 136 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…92dabacked Cobolli | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4731…cba8backed Cobolli | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked Machac | 16c | 97.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 318 | 19.2%61 W · 257 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x242d…603abacked Cobolli | 54c | 92.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…f5ffbacked Machac | 36c | 84.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x362c…ac6ebacked Machac | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…bff8backed Machac | 48c | 83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.84 | 372 | 38.2%142 W · 230 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Machac | 41c | 80.19$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.22 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd891…7341backed Cobolli | 77c | 77.92$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 121 | 61.2%74 W · 47 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb28c…be33backed Cobolli | 54c | 70$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.9wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2382…4628backed Machac | 43c | 55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0f6…b90cbacked Cobolli | 55c | 52$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c65…845dbacked Machac | 47c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ba…96c1backed Machac | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Machac | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 465 | 56.1%261 W · 204 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba49…a4a1backed Cobolli | 54c | 40.15$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.47 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x064a…9c2fbacked Cobolli | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 76 | 64.5%49 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd243…3398backed Cobolli | 54c | 35.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…d105backed Machac | 50c | 34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…51a0backed Cobolli | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +4.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a04…285abacked Machac | 62c | 27.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb16c…4ceabacked Cobolli | 56c | 26.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe688…fc52backed Cobolli | 55c | 26.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59ca…fd12backed Cobolli | 66c | 24.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe425…63e5backed Cobolli | 55c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…7696backed Cobolli | 56c | 19.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 437 | 49%214 W · 223 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f0e…7b1fbacked Cobolli | 55c | 18.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…07aabacked Cobolli | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 167 | 62.9%105 W · 62 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a3…7dedbacked Cobolli | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.2wins | -0.35per pick | 57cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x92fb…18a3backed Cobolli | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.