Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ae6c265bea1afb651de3cdc74590edbbbcebe4e92790461d6da599aa0c58198
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,928
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,500
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,928 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 18c | 774.2$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.85 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 21c | 492.53$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.45 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3a…00b2backed Yes | 12c | 312$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.87 | 145 | 24.1%35 W · 110 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 17c | 290.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 25c | 262.88$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.52 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 7c | 260.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8580…3f7cbacked Yes | 18c | 219.04$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 5c | 214.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 10c | 207.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32af…a7c3backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +5.6wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +53%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…4dd6backed Yes | 12c | 180.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 13c | 174.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22d9…ee63backed Yes | 20c | 152.55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.23 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 10c | 141.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 22c | 139.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.31 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 138.67$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 75c | 138.52$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.13 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc54…db0ebacked Yes | 16c | 127.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 10c | 123.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 13c | 117.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 12c | 117.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 10c | 111$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86bd…2c98backed Yes | 11c | 109.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc29…66b4backed No | 74c | 109.25$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…9144backed Yes | 10c | 108$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 17c | 104$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes | 15c | 102.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda56…4176backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 129 | 34.1%44 W · 85 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed No | 75c | 99.81$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…2aafbacked Yes | 17c | 99.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 78c | 93.48$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.01 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x427a…4e18backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 18c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83bd…a2a0backed Yes | 19c | 63.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 24c | 61.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 76c | 51.32$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd39…5f76backed No | 78c | 50.48$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 95 | 69.5%66 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe21…2f9cbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd6…5ab1backed No | 79c | 49.48$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 75cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7f…8282backed No | 74c | 41.92$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 76c | 32.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 75c | 28.05$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 75c | 25.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37df…f8b9backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 119 | 58.8%70 W · 49 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x804b…b090backed No | 75c | 19.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 183 | 65.6%120 W · 63 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 78c | 17.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 75c | 16.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.