Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90715b4244697931796c931117919dd0b37851a149dc74d3be18fabd671e1150
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,813
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,458
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,813 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 139 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 55c | 1,595$870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.57 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 52c | 881.8$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.18 | 668 | 43.4%290 W · 378 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 45c | 750$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 571 | 43.4%248 W · 323 L | -32.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 31c | 487.2$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.42 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ba…1deabacked No | 41c | 403.92$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.94 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 19c | 401.39$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.61 | 2,362 | 20.6%486 W · 1,876 L | -63.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…488cbacked Yes | 52c | 383.34$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.73 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 60c | 362.06$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.17 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 25c | 344.11$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.35 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 31c | 341.74$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.39 | 4,313 | 53.6%2,311 W · 2,002 L | +158.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 22c | 321.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.72 | 7,233 | 9.3%675 W · 6,558 L | -1,116.1wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…f8a3backed Yes | 61c | 316.86$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.1 | 109 | 54.1%59 W · 50 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 59c | 269.8$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.82 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 47c | 263.5$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.68 | 751 | 38.2%287 W · 464 L | +18.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 8c | 260$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 62c | 247.58$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.84 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 47c | 244.12$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.92 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 47c | 240.17$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.28 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 29c | 221.36$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.69 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 5c | 208.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 47c | 176.7$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.33 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 32c | 170$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.99 | 5,489 | 56%3,075 W · 2,414 L | -123.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 49c | 163.16$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.98 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94bf…1d2fbacked Yes | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 41c | 150$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.61 | 4,627 | 58.3%2,696 W · 1,931 L | -114.2wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 42c | 134.74$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.76 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 37c | 128.13$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.56 | 2,628 | 54%1,419 W · 1,209 L | -56.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 57c | 121.49$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.14 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 62c | 120$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.8 | 855 | 48.7%416 W · 439 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ed…156fbacked Yes | 52c | 105$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7529…9d10backed No | 13c | 104.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 43c | 104.53$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.93 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5675…f6a6backed No | 49c | 103.08$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.51 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 45c | 103.08$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.39 | 1,335 | 50.9%680 W · 655 L | -35.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 18c | 100.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 2,254 | 56.9%1,283 W · 971 L | +69.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 43c | 100.37$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.16 | 1,632 | 60.7%990 W · 642 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda56…4176backed Yes | 53c | 99.66$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.75 | 129 | 34.1%44 W · 85 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 65c | 96.98$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.78 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…d8b9backed Yes | 62c | 96.87$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 58c | 95.65$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.52 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d9…fc3fbacked Yes | 78c | 94$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 108 | 33.3%36 W · 72 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 51c | 93.09$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.61 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 46c | 91.96$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.66 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 60c | 90$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.75 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 43c | 89.89$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.4 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 47c | 87.19$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.86 | 1,268 | 58.4%740 W · 528 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36b6…0400backed Yes | 72c | 83.6$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 38c | 76.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 3,649 | 53.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L | +83.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 38c | 76.75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 39c | 75.42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 1,912 | 55.5%1,062 W · 850 L | +6.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 75c | 74.82$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 195 | 61.5%120 W · 75 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 40c | 74.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5579…2db1backed No | 44c | 72.59$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.88 | 138 | 52.9%73 W · 65 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 50c | 72.21$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.39 | 1,274 | 52.5%669 W · 605 L | -17.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 56c | 70.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.95 | 424 | 47.9%203 W · 221 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 58c | 67.62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.1 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 41c | 67.54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 30c | 66.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6871…7cb8backed Yes | 65c | 64.34$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 40c | 64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 47c | 63.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 2,043 | 61.7%1,261 W · 782 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 59.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25b2…4edbbacked Yes | 74c | 57.78$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…ca44backed Yes | 58c | 56.79$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 50c | 53.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 42c | 52.21$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.28 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 47c | 52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 2,439 | 58%1,414 W · 1,025 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 46c | 51.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 43c | 50.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 3,201 | 53.6%1,716 W · 1,485 L | -101.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 625 | 39.7%248 W · 377 L | +28.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3a…08d7backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb930…435fbacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 781 | 51.9%405 W · 376 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89cc…9e01backed Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 41c | 49.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes | 57c | 48.75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.96 | 515 | 52%268 W · 247 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 46c | 48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40bf…9e13backed Yes | 62c | 47.44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 49c | 47.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 923 | 55.9%516 W · 407 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 52c | 46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.93 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 44c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 494 | 49.2%243 W · 251 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…f296backed Yes | 58c | 44.61$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18dc…5e90backed Yes | 41c | 42.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.01 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed Yes | 59c | 42.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 199 | 47.7%95 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c2…f88bbacked Yes | 65c | 40.63$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 45c | 39.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 481 | 40.3%194 W · 287 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…99eabacked Yes | 56c | 35.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 58c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 550 | 26.9%148 W · 402 L | -66.5wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9d…a422backed Yes | 58c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 51c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 3,126 | 61.8%1,931 W · 1,195 L | -30.6wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13c1…3365backed Yes | 54c | 33.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 55c | 33.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 44c | 33.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 57c | 33.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.