Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 34°C on August 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9afeb1ef6564093ac5df81411073ae614bd2035651b8cc47fafb32897c29e412
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,255
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,543
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,255 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c4d…bb01backed Yes | 20c | 1,492$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.99 | 218 | 29.4%64 W · 154 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 17c | 633.63$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.26 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe5…91aabacked No | 76c | 355.52$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.52 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 79c | 316.06$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.1 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 25c | 299.03$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.69 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e80…22b8backed Yes | 14c | 272.41$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 135 | 27.4%37 W · 98 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 75c | 223.94$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.22 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 69c | 220.83$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.88 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 28c | 156$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 23c | 144.79$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 142.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.08 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 18c | 130$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99ef…ab48backed No | 76c | 127.04$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.02 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 80c | 117$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.73 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 20c | 112.03$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…100abacked Yes | 18c | 111.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf4…3b45backed No | 77c | 104.94$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.39 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 22c | 95.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ac…99ddbacked Yes | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 78c | 82.63$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.01 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 78c | 72.86$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 74c | 66.04$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.17 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 70c | 63.27$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 62.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 51.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b6…0d2bbacked No | 73c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed No | 77c | 41.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 29c | 39.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb0…3aa0backed No | 78c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 74c | 34.45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe795…99c9backed Yes | 32c | 33.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 31.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed No | 65c | 30.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 71c | 28.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…2de4backed No | 73c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 80c | 24.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 17.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe14c…5bdebacked No | 70c | 15.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 34°C on August 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C or below on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 33°C on August 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 35°C on August 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.