Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 33°C on August 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x828e2c5f8dc4f67d3a56c45ea5cd7cb7d4e4b7edde5b5876296565ae431fc44f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,218
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,748
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,218 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 30c | 1,090$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$766.22 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 36c | 1,049$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674.78 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 67c | 800$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 32c | 672.16$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.84 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 72c | 506.68$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.73 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 23c | 323.11$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.1 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 67c | 301.15$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.22 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 39c | 300$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 14c | 254.7$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.89 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 36c | 249.36$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.63 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 62c | 223.95$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.89 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 35c | 202.6$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.74 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34c1…1bb0backed Yes | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.1 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +10.6wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 70c | 183.92$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.76 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 178.84$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.89 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 61c | 174.8$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.81 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 38c | 167.95$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.42 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 33c | 158.01$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.96 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 35c | 156$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.81 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 151.87$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.29 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 27c | 140$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 48c | 128.54$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.56 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…ccccbacked Yes | 73c | 124.6$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.69 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x52fe…c258backed Yes | 32c | 123.58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.58 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e80…22b8backed Yes | 34c | 117.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.81 | 135 | 27.4%37 W · 98 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 14c | 99.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 41c | 94$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.87 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 65c | 92.31$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 35c | 91$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 67c | 80$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.83 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 65c | 78$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.71 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…5ac4backed Yes | 32c | 70.28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.79 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 66c | 68.45$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 37c | 67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.28 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.35 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 69c | 62.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.25 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 39c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 31c | 54.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.35 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 66c | 53.7$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.44 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 66c | 50.81$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaec7…03efbacked No | 31c | 49.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 68c | 45.43$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 67c | 44.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 70c | 44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe795…99c9backed No | 66c | 43.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 70c | 43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 42.15$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 64c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 68c | 38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 68c | 37.87$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 65c | 33.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 68c | 33.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 61c | 32.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 30.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdae8…4736backed Yes | 36c | 30.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e4c…2918backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 34c | 29.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 37c | 29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 68c | 28.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 154 | 66.9%103 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 68c | 28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3084backed Yes | 80c | 27.09$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 152 | 70.4%107 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 25.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 59c | 22.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 61c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 73c | 21.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed Yes | 60c | 21.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 66c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 72c | 20.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x531d…f04fbacked Yes | 79c | 20.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -7.4wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 159 | 61.6%98 W · 61 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 61c | 19.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 80c | 18.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40be…e067backed Yes | 68c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked Yes | 72c | 14.43$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 33°C on August 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C or below on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 34°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 35°C on August 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.