TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: illwill vs Team Novaq (BO3) - BC Game Masters Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
illwillof illwill, Team Novaq
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$22,646

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,646 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3542…c3c8backed Team Novaq40c1,500$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60016653%88 W · 78 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x35a6…cb8fbacked illwill60c1,350$810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540.456147.5%29 W · 32 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3db4…d69bbacked Team Novaq39c1,333$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.8675056.8%426 W · 324 L+47.8wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+13.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked illwill62c1,081$671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.855,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed illwill64c1,016$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.321,16354.3%631 W · 532 L-38.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Team Novaq37c1,000$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.031,71446.7%801 W · 913 L+1.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc5a…bf71backed illwill59c920.64$544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.1180744.6%360 W · 447 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9919…f261backed illwill60c863.71$521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.6841847.1%197 W · 221 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Team Novaq37c803.18$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.971,57335.3%556 W · 1,017 L+22.5wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8b6…c7dbbacked Team Novaq40c771.25$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.7336253.3%193 W · 169 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x236b…26b7backed Team Novaq38c699$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.3333044.5%147 W · 183 L+7.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Team Novaq38c650.79$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.9625934%88 W · 171 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xab2e…2014backed illwill62c640.69$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.694341.9%18 W · 25 L-3.9wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-18.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Team Novaq38c632.99$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.194,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed illwill63c624$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.6285446.4%396 W · 458 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2133…7903backed Team Novaq15c600$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9038835.8%139 W · 249 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdad…9eaebacked illwill63c500$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.925337.9%96 W · 157 L-14.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-16.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa5a8…bf60backed illwill63c477.75$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.7598856.1%554 W · 434 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Team Novaq40c470.19$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.145,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed illwill68c445.91$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.887244.8%391 W · 481 L-17.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x076b…dbfabacked Team Novaq36c357.92$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.85988.9%8 W · 1 L+3.5wins+0.39per pick50cpaid+82.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x15a6…bf5dbacked Team Novaq39c333$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.879739.2%38 W · 59 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8d9…df36backed Team Novaq32c329.87$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.568535.3%30 W · 55 L-7.1wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-17.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc006…3c94backed illwill66c316.01$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.015738.6%22 W · 35 L-6.6wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-26.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x87b8…29dcbacked Team Novaq37c280$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.62744.4%12 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Team Novaq38c274.34$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.761,03361.6%636 W · 397 L+87.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+11.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x66df…7ea5backed illwill62c264.52$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.523265.6%21 W · 11 L+2.9wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+16.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbf0b…7cccbacked illwill63c238.37$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.8545450.2%228 W · 226 L-12.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Team Novaq29c230$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.784454.3%458 W · 386 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56e7…c2f0backed Team Novaq44c229.43$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001650%8 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61fe…0956backed illwill58c220$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.410663.2%67 W · 39 L+10.5wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc0f3…f7dfbacked illwill71c200$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5818063.9%115 W · 65 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe463…f7b2backed Team Novaq38c199.99$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7632844.5%146 W · 182 L-0.3wins0.00per pick45cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bf6…b779backed illwill63c182.77$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.295736.8%21 W · 36 L+0.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cff…3984backed illwill60c167.4$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.420952.6%110 W · 99 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f3d…1f52backed illwill60c166.35$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.9728052.9%148 W · 132 L+1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x861f…a189backed illwill61c164$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.9692152.6%484 W · 437 L+16.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79c6…4cf3backed illwill60c151.75$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.7514151.8%73 W · 68 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a02…a770backed Team Novaq40c151.13$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.131532.4%102 W · 213 L-15.2wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-19.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xedaa…89b4backed Team Novaq40c150$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6024535.9%88 W · 157 L-11.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Novaq35c138.96$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.642,06641.5%858 W · 1,208 L-49.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Team Novaq40c125.16$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.66,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7140…47e3backed Team Novaq36c122.22$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4410651.9%55 W · 51 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d0e…13aabacked illwill58c115.65$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.4215638.5%60 W · 96 L-19.6wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-25.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Team Novaq38c103.13$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.6531735.6%113 W · 204 L+10.0wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fa6…03ebbacked Team Novaq40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4095642.6%407 W · 549 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked Team Novaq33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331,26246.9%592 W · 670 L-34.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9810…b0debacked illwill61c100$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.28247.6%39 W · 43 L-5.9wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-20.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked illwill61c100$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391,71052.3%895 W · 815 L-73.4wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c55…84cebacked illwill61c100$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3933539.4%132 W · 203 L-19.1wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-17.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xced8…221ebacked Team Novaq37c100$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.570038.9%272 W · 428 L-29.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-18.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6fc0…8f18backed Team Novaq33c98$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3416946.7%79 W · 90 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Team Novaq38c91.08$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.942,06150.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L-18.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf58…711fbacked illwill62c90.75$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.177647.4%36 W · 40 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcf0…b95dbacked Team Novaq40c89.74$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.918751.3%96 W · 91 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-0.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3437…1e5ebacked illwill60c86.67$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.673246.9%15 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x928a…8044backed illwill61c82.5$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.3520358.6%119 W · 84 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Team Novaq40c80$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9554348.6%264 W · 279 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca81…f2abbacked illwill67c80$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.835744.3%158 W · 199 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Team Novaq36c74$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9245639.3%179 W · 277 L-29.2wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-20.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x64e8…7819backed illwill61c70$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.354032.4%175 W · 365 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x345d…4e41backed illwill62c69.97$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.595147.1%24 W · 27 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16fd…b4d3backed illwill57c69.77$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3029840.3%120 W · 178 L-9.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-24.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x02ba…834bbacked Team Novaq43c69.77$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5cbc…1d39backed Team Novaq30c60$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-69.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Team Novaq38c60$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.569863%440 W · 258 L+65.3wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+5.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x931c…bf4bbacked illwill60c60$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2432351.4%166 W · 157 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51b7…2fc7backed illwill66c60$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.443442.2%183 W · 251 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f50…e59ebacked illwill63c60$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.211758.1%68 W · 49 L-0.4wins0.00per pick58cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4213…4d15backed Team Novaq42c59.52$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick59cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe658…2c42backed illwill65c56.49$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.942347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa4…16e3backed illwill60c54.66$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.8676546.7%357 W · 408 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29f8…ffa9backed illwill47c54.23$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.7443239.1%169 W · 263 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6041…3326backed illwill59c54$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.1415756.1%88 W · 69 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Team Novaq41c52.46$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.512,46824.6%607 W · 1,861 L-317.8wins-0.13per pick37cpaid-51.7%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xd4f5…7a95backed Team Novaq31c47.9$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1523751.5%122 W · 115 L-14.7wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-17.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Team Novaq39c46.8$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.422,10216.8%353 W · 1,749 L-286.5wins-0.14per pick30cpaid-47.2%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xfc7e…70ecbacked illwill62c46.49$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.548648.8%42 W · 44 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c77…6747backed Team Novaq40c38.65$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4611230.4%34 W · 78 L-16.7wins-0.15per pick45cpaid-32.8%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x2b5c…ab22backed illwill61c30$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.75149%25 W · 26 L+0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58f2…692ebacked illwill71c30$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.717150.3%86 W · 85 L-7.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d16…0abbbacked Team Novaq34c29.44$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.017941.8%33 W · 46 L-6.0wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-23.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1a35…6fe0backed illwill63c27.93$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.1917837.6%67 W · 111 L-0.2wins0.00per pick38cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7d7…ec13backed illwill61c27.75$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.825955.9%33 W · 26 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a3a…f788backed Team Novaq37c27.06$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1116338.7%63 W · 100 L-13.8wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-22.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa528…2499backed Team Novaq41c25.6$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.56647%31 W · 35 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8bd…fc74backed Team Novaq40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030831.2%96 W · 212 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdd1…ae72backed illwill61c24$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.3628852.1%150 W · 138 L+0.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.