Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on April 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b269e6a2113c2941273f2ec091159f36d0caf34b5151a0a99461ffbc40378f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,867
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,781
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,867 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 65c | 605.59$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.61 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed No | 3c | 390.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 29c | 388.57$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.06 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x747c…443bbacked Yes | 72c | 311.33$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.55 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 39c | 266.32$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.47 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 66c | 250.24$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.12 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 44c | 245.18$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.31 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 243.43$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.41 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x886d…c586backed Yes | 43c | 219.42$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.12 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 28c | 183.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.6 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 12c | 170.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked No | 61c | 158.67$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.05 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 40c | 147.71$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 67c | 140.43$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.91 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dd…a04ebacked Yes | 46c | 134.43$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.22 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 79c | 131.38$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.26 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 39c | 129.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.94 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 33c | 113.95$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.64 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 38c | 109.66$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.28 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43b6…77a7backed Yes | 44c | 107.48$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.28 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked No | 71c | 106.77$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.38 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9577…3de1backed Yes | 47c | 100.9$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.55 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 58c | 98.57$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 59c | 98.16$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.64 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 59c | 97.75$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.07 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ce…2ea5backed Yes | 51c | 94.05$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.72 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 37c | 83.06$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.11 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 36c | 76.41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.9 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed Yes | 77c | 73.91$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fb…1c67backed Yes | 43c | 73.31$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.79 | 98 | 77.6%76 W · 22 L | +16.3wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cd…aecdbacked No | 60c | 72.48$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.67 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 40c | 71.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.43 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Yes | 53c | 71.42$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.28 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4c…8bebbacked Yes | 39c | 71.08$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.36 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +21.9wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 42c | 70.58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.94 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 42c | 67.65$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.22 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 52c | 65.78$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.44 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb060…9572backed Yes | 34c | 64.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.51 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…aff0backed No | 41c | 62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 72c | 61.39$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 37c | 59.21$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.08 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 49c | 58.1$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.63 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 78c | 56.71$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.99 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18de…0b64backed Yes | 63c | 53.92$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b99…296bbacked No | 24c | 53.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…ea10backed Yes | 50c | 53.25$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…1a68backed No | 71c | 49.24$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.81 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 29c | 48.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.78 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 46.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 22c | 45.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.19 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 40c | 43.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.34 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f9…e901backed Yes | 69c | 42.71$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 54 | 13%7 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0d…25bfbacked Yes | 48c | 41.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 40.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe57d…043abacked No | 54c | 39.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 58c | 38.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 35c | 37.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.29 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Yes | 65c | 35.88$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc53a…625fbacked No | 56c | 34.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 50c | 33.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 64c | 32.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked No | 36c | 30.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5514…a9c1backed Yes | 47c | 30.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc931…7d46backed No | 69c | 30.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae4…bd41backed No | 58c | 28.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 77c | 27.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea2e…39e5backed Yes | 41c | 27.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…4ac3backed Yes | 41c | 27.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 46c | 24.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7944…8861backed Yes | 52c | 23.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a06…ff99backed No | 60c | 20.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed No | 62c | 19.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed No | 63c | 19.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 182 | 42.3%77 W · 105 L | -19.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…d923backed No | 63c | 19.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 84 | 36.9%31 W · 53 L | -12.7wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…c7f7backed No | 64c | 19.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 139 | 43.9%61 W · 78 L | -12.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 64c | 19.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 63c | 18.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…a2f8backed No | 59c | 17.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 118 | 72.9%86 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 78c | 17.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e75…305ebacked No | 70c | 17.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x967e…2fb6backed No | 76c | 15.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae7…10d5backed No | 68c | 14.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.19per pick | 67cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on April 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 15°C or below on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on April 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.