Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on April 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc1abe109bcd447f2fe3395f727915b8409455ad93c9df16c0e1a05080cca85f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,195
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,537
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,195 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 63c | 748.43$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.7 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9577…3de1backed Yes | 69c | 559.99$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.69 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 4c | 468$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 3c | 377.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 351.27$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.04 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc775…6b22backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +118.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 36c | 245.58$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.03 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 36c | 191.9$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.59 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 41c | 156.55$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.75 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 40c | 137.01$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.66 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 38c | 135.8$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed No | 60c | 122.87$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.74 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 39c | 117.02$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.15 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 34c | 110$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x747c…443bbacked Yes | 42c | 106.13$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.05 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 39c | 105.54$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.13 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…bd82backed No | 48c | 102.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.07 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 63c | 98.71$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.38 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 37c | 91.44$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x886d…c586backed No | 49c | 82.9$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.08 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 72.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dd…a04ebacked Yes | 39c | 72.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 34c | 70.65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 31c | 64.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb060…9572backed Yes | 35c | 61.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 33c | 59.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 34c | 56.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 36c | 54.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…d9a3backed Yes | 36c | 51.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…e181backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94af…e65fbacked Yes | 42c | 47.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 27c | 47.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 50c | 46.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 46.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 40c | 44.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e66…52f5backed Yes | 32c | 43.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 50c | 43.86$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ce…2ea5backed Yes | 44c | 43.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 40c | 41.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 62c | 40.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbd…d684backed Yes | 34c | 40.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed No | 34c | 40.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.72 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59ee…b6aabacked No | 28c | 40.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.13 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.25per pick | 61cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 38c | 38.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 58c | 36.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 68c | 35.83$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 36c | 35.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc931…7d46backed No | 68c | 34.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 59c | 34.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b8…4493backed No | 35c | 34.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…1a68backed No | 71c | 32.81$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b99…296bbacked Yes | 38c | 31.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2282…da13backed No | 62c | 31.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 38c | 30.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…3c16backed Yes | 35c | 29.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18de…0b64backed Yes | 39c | 28.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked No | 53c | 27.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f9…e901backed Yes | 53c | 27.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 54 | 13%7 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b7…91f8backed No | 70c | 21.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 77 | 77.9%60 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…c8bbbacked No | 61c | 20.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ae…890cbacked Yes | 51c | 20.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 68c | 14.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on April 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 15°C or below on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on April 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on April 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.