Tennis · resolved market
Pan Pacific Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Elena Rybakina
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b4ef589cacc1b733bb028a38bf491d221b5dc873b1f2a19780298836c988c38
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rybakinaof Fernandez, Rybakina
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,637
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,161
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,637 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Fernandez | 0c | 5,560$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked Rybakina | 76c | 2,662$2,024 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.86 | 158 | 32.3%51 W · 107 L | -13.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3868…5683backed Fernandez | 25c | 2,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Rybakina | 75c | 1,803$1,356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.95 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Fernandez | 21c | 1,473$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.13 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -5.7wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xacdf…0ec4backed Rybakina | 78c | 1,398$1,086 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.04 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Fernandez | 20c | 1,202$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.03 | 8,241 | 45.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L | +166.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Fernandez | 17c | 1,027$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 191 | 31.4%60 W · 131 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Rybakina | 79c | 656.62$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.99 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Fernandez | 26c | 522.44$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.05 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Rybakina | 75c | 469.56$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.43 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d37…59b5backed Fernandez | 22c | 463.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 94 | 62.8%59 W · 35 L | +9.2wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0a…c2c4backed Fernandez | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Fernandez | 26c | 385.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Rybakina | 76c | 371.29$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.37 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x296e…a116backed Fernandez | 22c | 350$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Fernandez | 24c | 300$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 183 | 38.8%71 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Fernandez | 24c | 261$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.8 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68c9…4c60backed Rybakina | 77c | 258.08$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.08 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7753…73cebacked Rybakina | 78c | 204.02$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.38 | 239 | 69.9%167 W · 72 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5916…8d4fbacked Fernandez | 25c | 203.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f83…7252backed Fernandez | 28c | 201.44$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.39 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -7.3wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8d28…932abacked Fernandez | 22c | 199.94$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.99 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Fernandez | 22c | 192.54$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.66 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…ac6abacked Rybakina | 77c | 130.4$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +247.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Rybakina | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Rybakina | 73c | 116.14$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.36 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Rybakina | 77c | 103.9$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 465 | 56.1%261 W · 204 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed Fernandez | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 313 | 39.9%125 W · 188 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Fernandez | 26c | 75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ffe…b69dbacked Fernandez | 20c | 74.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Rybakina | 78c | 69.73$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x924e…4e84backed Rybakina | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ee…efe0backed Rybakina | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2db8…e042backed Rybakina | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 750 | 61.7%463 W · 287 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aab…4207backed Rybakina | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x435a…bacfbacked Fernandez | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa905…fcf1backed Rybakina | 77c | 49.95$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Fernandez | 24c | 45.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ca…2c36backed Rybakina | 77c | 45.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Fernandez | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x515a…561fbacked Rybakina | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e1…9897backed Rybakina | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc63…50e5backed Rybakina | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…1e51backed Rybakina | 77c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13b9…7e4fbacked Rybakina | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3412…3a3cbacked Rybakina | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +3.6wins | +0.16per pick | 65cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…c45ebacked Rybakina | 78c | 13.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.