Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b5f48102b6a8f011f3ff60d4e72322a97917288bbf26e4ba766f0bc9e8f86ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,708
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,031
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,708 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x777f…d8b2backed Yes | 11c | 2,082$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.6 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 16c | 1,479$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.83 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 45c | 1,365$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.58 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 55c | 851.93$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.88 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 11c | 750.78$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.22 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed Yes | 12c | 684.04$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.21 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 73c | 645.72$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.78 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 51c | 480.85$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.86 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 4c | 477.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 188 | 4.8%9 W · 179 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 80c | 402.09$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.19 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d98…261ebacked Yes | 62c | 322.76$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.43 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 67c | 290.85$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.68 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 5c | 264.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 78c | 233.01$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.29 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf508…30a5backed Yes | 10c | 226.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 72c | 223.29$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2868…9b6bbacked Yes | 29c | 200.95$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.98 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1171…b88ebacked Yes | 7c | 199.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 14c | 185$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 15c | 141.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd2…c304backed Yes | 8c | 140.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 160 | 38.8%62 W · 98 L | +18.0wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f2…6c8ebacked Yes | 11c | 132.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 36c | 131.23$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.83 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 64c | 119.98$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.13 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed No | 74c | 117.82$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.78 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca9c…e62bbacked Yes | 9c | 117.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 71 | 32.4%23 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f16…016bbacked Yes | 9c | 108.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 70c | 105$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.94 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 64c | 100.22$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.15 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 50c | 97$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 95.94$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.92 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…9e66backed Yes | 36c | 84.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ea…ea62backed Yes | 79c | 80$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.09 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 72c | 66.54$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 66c | 65$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 48c | 60.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 57c | 57.19$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.57 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed Yes | 70c | 57.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 62c | 52.21$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…2fe3backed Yes | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…40aebacked Yes | 28c | 49.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 21c | 49.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 63c | 46.31$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 69c | 43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 36c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.42 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22b6…a962backed No | 76c | 39.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b35…bb20backed Yes | 72c | 38.78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 35c | 37.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.06 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95ab…45bebacked Yes | 76c | 35.55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 43c | 30.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes | 64c | 28.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 64c | 26.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 55c | 21.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff3…4b1ebacked No | 67c | 17.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 80 | 73.8%59 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.09 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 79°F or below on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on July 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on July 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.