Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a46789fe4a6bd266612206009c6fabb31af659d887726144733c431c476c08e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,804
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,118
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,804 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 1c | 4,495$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.76 | 1,370 | 20.7%283 W · 1,087 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 16c | 1,814$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.92 | 929 | 44.3%412 W · 517 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 24c | 1,363$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.17 | 4,700 | 26.6%1,248 W · 3,452 L | +64.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 67c | 973.15$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.8 | 2,299 | 17.8%409 W · 1,890 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 3c | 686.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 1,500 | 24.7%371 W · 1,129 L | -31.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed Yes | 16c | 627.94$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.03 | 237 | 28.7%68 W · 169 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 12c | 442.28$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.91 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 7c | 375.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 2,280 | 14.7%336 W · 1,944 L | +51.5wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 14c | 362.25$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.12 | 3,064 | 33.5%1,027 W · 2,037 L | +13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 9c | 349.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 2,283 | 58.3%1,331 W · 952 L | +85.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 10c | 233.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 1,877 | 18.5%348 W · 1,529 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 15c | 208.36$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 205.35$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.17 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 19c | 203.62$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.55 | 3,201 | 53.6%1,716 W · 1,485 L | -101.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed No | 68c | 147.38$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.38 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 17c | 147$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.01 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe76b…ad7fbacked Yes | 20c | 142.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 57c | 134.33$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.21 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 19c | 132.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.5 | 2,362 | 20.6%486 W · 1,876 L | -63.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 67c | 120$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.4 | 1,254 | 59.8%750 W · 504 L | +36.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 10c | 119.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 6,891 | 39.4%2,717 W · 4,174 L | +269.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 115.24$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 20c | 106.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 31c | 100.3$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.12 | 697 | 35.3%246 W · 451 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…9b60backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 159 | 15.7%25 W · 134 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 98.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f2…6c8ebacked Yes | 24c | 89.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 16c | 89.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 3,426 | 31.1%1,066 W · 2,360 L | -38.9wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8270…d5cabacked Yes | 24c | 87.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 68c | 85.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.73 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed No | 71c | 83.3$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.86 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeacc…b660backed Yes | 15c | 79.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7409…8e40backed Yes | 16c | 77.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 68c | 75.79$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.04 | 1,184 | 54.9%650 W · 534 L | +49.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 28c | 72.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 32c | 69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 887 | 49.5%439 W · 448 L | -26.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 70c | 67.26$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 30c | 66.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 70c | 65.01$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 634 | 55.7%353 W · 281 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 28c | 64.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 1,301 | 32.9%428 W · 873 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 72c | 45.2$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 473 | 44%208 W · 265 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 29c | 40.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…7e3ebacked Yes | 33c | 34.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,926 | 62.8%1,210 W · 716 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xede4…1c40backed No | 73c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 153 | 69.9%107 W · 46 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 74cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 533 | 73.7%393 W · 140 L | +36.8wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 70c | 20.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 989 | 52.3%517 W · 472 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1,615 | 61.9%999 W · 616 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c15…5b4bbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1,710 | 60.8%1,039 W · 671 L | -22.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1,554 | 56.7%881 W · 673 L | -83.6wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed No | 79c | 19.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 173 | 61.8%107 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 73c | 18.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 78c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed No | 70c | 17.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff3…4b1ebacked No | 79c | 16.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.53 | 80 | 73.8%59 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84e3…3dfdbacked No | 68c | 15.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 156 | 78.2%122 W · 34 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 70c | 15.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 2,215 | 74%1,638 W · 577 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…8c10backed No | 79c | 14.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.13 | 93 | 66.7%62 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6847…f1eabacked No | 70c | 14.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on July 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 79°F or below on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on July 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on July 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.