Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x685154c635cdab9a3c69029df4f5b41fbc77be21c84fffd4450a7ec55c7314fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,435
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,667
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,435 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 42c | 1,601$667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$934.4 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 793.4$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.12 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 34c | 584.81$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.56 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 497.69$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.74 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 37c | 493.6$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.59 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 77c | 485.83$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.94 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 57c | 462.39$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.08 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 438$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.58 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 8c | 416.26$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.05 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 37c | 400$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.05 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 42c | 375.42$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.48 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed Yes | 47c | 287.81$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.54 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 51c | 280$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.52 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 9c | 270.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31de…03ffbacked Yes | 34c | 246$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.9 | 49 | 91.8%45 W · 4 L | +18.2wins | +0.37per pick | 55cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 77+0.25 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 13c | 245.59$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.79 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 26c | 241.46$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.68 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 55c | 231.95$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.29 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 72c | 223.28$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.1 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 5c | 221.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.54 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bb…1b2fbacked No | 56c | 217.27$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.8 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82d8…03eabacked Yes | 6c | 215.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.06 | 116 | 12.1%14 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 62c | 214.39$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.86 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 67c | 211.48$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.39 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 74c | 211.18$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.05 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2868…9b6bbacked Yes | 25c | 203.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.24 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 21c | 197.96$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.89 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 63c | 186.02$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.58 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc16…1094backed Yes | 69c | 172.76$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.76 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 57c | 166.8$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.02 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 11c | 166.56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.08 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 45c | 155.11$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.37 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 61c | 152.06$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.38 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 40c | 149.33$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.33 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 61c | 138.69$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.94 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 67c | 138$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.15 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 71c | 134$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.03 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 40c | 133.52$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.35 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 38c | 132.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.21 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 54c | 132.21$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.12 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x68b5…41bcbacked Yes | 10c | 130.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.51 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe76b…ad7fbacked No | 10c | 128.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeacc…b660backed Yes | 26c | 125.28$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.28 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 54c | 120.5$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.99 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 42c | 117.72$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.97 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 60c | 117.09$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.18 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 44c | 112.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.86 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 43c | 111.91$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.83 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 26c | 107.19$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.48 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed No | 67c | 106.7$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.8 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | -13.5wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked No | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 35c | 91.4$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 57c | 89.72$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.73 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 65c | 89$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.95 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 85$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.26 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 59c | 84$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.34 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x271e…8eb9backed Yes | 33c | 76.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.76 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 43c | 76.74$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.74 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x361c…99d4backed No | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 43c | 73.61$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.61 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked Yes | 38c | 73.43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.83 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 47c | 70.56$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.56 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 70$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.55 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 34c | 69.63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.65 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 58c | 66.43$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.56 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 38c | 65.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.92 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 36c | 59.13$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.97 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 61c | 57.44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 61c | 57.2$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 45c | 56.9$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.3 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 57c | 52.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 41c | 51.45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.38 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…a722backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9625…ec8ebacked No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 37c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.55 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked No | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Yes | 43c | 49.7$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 52c | 49.59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 36c | 48.18$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 60c | 48.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 70c | 46.04$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed No | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8270…d5cabacked Yes | 45c | 41.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.09 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 60c | 41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd3…026dbacked No | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked No | 67c | 39.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 54c | 36.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 65c | 35.52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…7e3ebacked Yes | 37c | 34.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.47 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…3c16backed Yes | 36c | 33.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 36c | 32.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.76 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 36c | 31.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on July 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 79°F or below on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on July 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.