Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x178953e0f5881d0f99779833c3b4e361fcfdf2b2ff3663768029d8ccd400ed61
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,847
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,409
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,847 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 30c | 1,053$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.09 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 31c | 909.88$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.23 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed Yes | 27c | 813.54$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.82 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 23c | 796.51$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.33 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…d8b2backed Yes | 29c | 779.53$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.31 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 547.24$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.71 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 74c | 520.42$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.43 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 20c | 514.78$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.27 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 73c | 460.82$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.23 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 68c | 367.44$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.24 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 32c | 357.32$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.1 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed No | 64c | 349.98$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.99 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 70c | 302$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.64 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 274$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.15 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 33c | 264.71$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.55 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 31c | 241.96$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.57 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 23c | 231.89$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.85 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 26c | 229.28$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.26 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 68c | 223.28$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.98 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 18c | 222.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 72c | 222.43$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.57 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 78c | 214$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.08 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82d8…03eabacked Yes | 22c | 201.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.94 | 116 | 12.1%14 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 23c | 178.98$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.14 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 75c | 164.4$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.48 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 12c | 160$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeacc…b660backed Yes | 43c | 152.53$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…2305backed Yes | 15c | 148$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 72 | 13.9%10 W · 62 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 14c | 145.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 66c | 143$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.13 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 36c | 138.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 26c | 125$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 75c | 120.39$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 68c | 117.09$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 115.25$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.19 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f2…6c8ebacked Yes | 35c | 114.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2868…9b6bbacked Yes | 19c | 111.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 27c | 109.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.53 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe76b…ad7fbacked No | 57c | 105.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 55c | 105$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.99 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1171…b88ebacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 74c | 96.01$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.17 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 33c | 92.25$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 31c | 91.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.53 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2d…0ef3backed Yes | 13c | 88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d98…261ebacked No | 69c | 87.86$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.64 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 86.9$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.17 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc16…1094backed Yes | 39c | 83.08$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 78c | 78$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 22c | 72.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed Yes | 32c | 67.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 75c | 67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 78c | 63.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e97…96cebacked Yes | 29c | 63.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 60c | 63.03$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 66c | 62.5$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 73c | 61.76$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.78 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…9e66backed Yes | 34c | 60.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31dc…ce99backed Yes | 30c | 60.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 104 | 27.9%29 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 23c | 57.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70a7…9be5backed Yes | 35c | 57.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 33c | 56.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 29c | 51.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…aeecbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…e66dbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -6.8wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x68b5…41bcbacked Yes | 26c | 49.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…5d00backed Yes | 28c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 64c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa6…bd37backed Yes | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 67c | 42.84$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b4a…efa3backed Yes | 48c | 42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed Yes | 27c | 41.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | -13.5wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 66c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 63c | 39.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 74c | 39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d0…1d16backed Yes | 32c | 37.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked No | 61c | 36.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x157f…e6d9backed Yes | 34c | 34.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 68c | 31.45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 29.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked Yes | 40c | 26.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 188 | 62.8%118 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 78c | 22.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 67c | 18.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 77c | 16.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25f0…7d92backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on July 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 79°F or below on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on July 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on July 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.