NBA · resolved market
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 235.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b793587308c9f2d2fcc285c22d42c6623b8303fdad26dc46ef486e476ac7ec0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,377
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,628
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,377 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Under | 57c | 8,000$4,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,440 | 513 | 50.1%257 W · 256 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 44c | 4,679$2,049 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,048.91 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 46c | 2,888$1,322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,322.38 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca5…73bcbacked Under | 53c | 1,277$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.36 | 404 | 51.5%208 W · 196 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 76c | 1,172$887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.1 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Under | 51c | 588$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.12 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Over | 48c | 520$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.6 | 172 | 33.7%58 W · 114 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 43c | 400$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7289…8d16backed Under | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 133 | 54.1%72 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Over | 3c | 351.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 637 | 45.8%292 W · 345 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…e4a3backed Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 410 | 52%213 W · 197 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Over | 45c | 164.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.65 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 37c | 128.77$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.66 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 53c | 124.53$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.53 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 51c | 121.93$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.75 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb906…2a75backed Over | 44c | 113.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c13…99b7backed Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 477 | 38.2%182 W · 295 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over | 30c | 96.91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b06…f9cebacked Under | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 48c | 84.13$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.23 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…e5b8backed Under | 58c | 70.2$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.69 | 162 | 61.7%100 W · 62 L | +15.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over | 47c | 63.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Under | 53c | 62.26$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.26 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ab…c3acbacked Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa75d…1d45backed Under | 53c | 45.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 223 | 47.1%105 W · 118 L | -9.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47e5…9b73backed Under | 52c | 41.54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 425 | 51.3%218 W · 207 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…389dbacked Under | 52c | 41.54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 413 | 54%223 W · 190 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b54…ea13backed Under | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 379 | 59.4%225 W · 154 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedb5…ce8ebacked Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 217 | 56.7%123 W · 94 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d86…112cbacked Under | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9954…ec72backed Under | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked Under | 58c | 17.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 448 | 44.2%198 W · 250 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 69c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 235.5this page
- Spread: Timberwolves (-1.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-2.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-3.5)Spurs won
- Spurs vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 121.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 232.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 233.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 234.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.