NBA · resolved market
Spread: Timberwolves (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b7610de69cc66cbf17a4adf568f22cb36bbacb98b5ec0a5febec7d1d081a878
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spursof Timberwolves, Spurs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,131
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,248
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,131 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Spurs | 55c | 9,020$4,967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,052.22 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…5c69backed Spurs | 58c | 8,620$4,958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,662.38 | 363 | 59.8%217 W · 146 L | +23.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Timberwolves | 42c | 7,613$3,229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,229.29 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9adf…55e8backed Spurs | 53c | 6,367$3,375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,992.54 | 237 | 47.7%113 W · 124 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Timberwolves | 47c | 6,111$2,869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,868.6 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Spurs | 55c | 2,774$1,538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,236.62 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedb1…819ebacked Spurs | 58c | 2,586$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,086.21 | 158 | 55.7%88 W · 70 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Timberwolves | 45c | 2,345$1,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,055.26 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Timberwolves | 41c | 2,118$858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$858.48 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked Spurs | 55c | 2,000$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.99 | 48 | 68.8%33 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Timberwolves | 46c | 1,339$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.74 | 101 | 38.6%39 W · 62 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Spurs | 54c | 1,184$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.44 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…e20fbacked Spurs | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 499 | 38.9%194 W · 305 L | -23.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Timberwolves | 43c | 930.51$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.12 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Timberwolves | 27c | 910.45$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.95 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Timberwolves | 46c | 823$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.58 | 346 | 54%187 W · 159 L | +13.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Spurs | 54c | 793.9$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.28 | 172 | 33.7%58 W · 114 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Spurs | 56c | 638$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.34 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Spurs | 56c | 444.5$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.9 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Timberwolves | 44c | 430.22$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Timberwolves | 38c | 352$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.32 | 619 | 39.6%245 W · 374 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…1121backed Spurs | 58c | 350$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 909 | 57.6%524 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Timberwolves | 3c | 340$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 830 | 39.4%327 W · 503 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e96…e9f8backed Spurs | 56c | 267.86$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.86 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Timberwolves | 44c | 203.06$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.23 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa61f…7993backed Spurs | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 617 | 47.8%295 W · 322 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9714…3014backed Spurs | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | -9.3wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…93d7backed Timberwolves | 47c | 199.99$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 403 | 46.2%186 W · 217 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Timberwolves | 46c | 199.99$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 293 | 46.4%136 W · 157 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Spurs | 55c | 190$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.5 | 368 | 54.1%199 W · 169 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabf6…129dbacked Spurs | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d2…22fbbacked Timberwolves | 47c | 176.6$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 113 | 48.7%55 W · 58 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Timberwolves | 38c | 175.28$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.17 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x125e…583fbacked Spurs | 69c | 140.99$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.79 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82a6…af86backed Spurs | 56c | 125$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Spurs | 54c | 122.22$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.22 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Timberwolves | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Spurs | 54c | 93$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.36 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Spurs | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1365…97dfbacked Spurs | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 162 | 53.1%86 W · 76 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4010…77d4backed Spurs | 58c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 481 | 46.2%222 W · 259 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Timberwolves | 42c | 70$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Timberwolves | 44c | 68.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Timberwolves | 46c | 53.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 806 | 53.6%432 W · 374 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Spurs | 54c | 52.13$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.98 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Spurs | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 879 | 50.6%445 W · 434 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed Timberwolves | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Timberwolves | 38c | 47.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 238 | 45.4%108 W · 130 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Spurs | 57c | 44.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 637 | 45.8%292 W · 345 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…638abacked Spurs | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Timberwolves | 43c | 34.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Spurs | 55c | 31.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe373…b097backed Timberwolves | 46c | 29.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa7…2e3cbacked Spurs | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | -6.0wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Spurs | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked Timberwolves | 46c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 379 | 49.3%187 W · 192 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed Timberwolves | 46c | 21.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 192 | 42.7%82 W · 110 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Timberwolves (-3.5)this page
- Spread: Timberwolves (-1.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-2.5)Spurs won
- Spurs vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 121.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 232.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 233.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 234.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 235.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.