NBA · resolved market
Spread: Timberwolves (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x223e96dc841d457535610a889f9c27eeaf53b8e1f93a8593d7e9d29675547dd4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spursof Timberwolves, Spurs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,647
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,115
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,647 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4924…3782backed Spurs | 48c | 37,289$17,779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,510.36 | 874 | 51.5%450 W · 424 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Timberwolves | 52c | 17,754$9,214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,213.69 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Timberwolves | 52c | 16,398$8,557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,557.17 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Timberwolves | 53c | 9,000$4,770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,770 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…5c69backed Timberwolves | 54c | 7,509$4,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,054.59 | 363 | 59.8%217 W · 146 L | +23.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Spurs | 49c | 6,027$2,925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,101.97 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Spurs | 47c | 2,350$1,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,242.31 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd56d…bd7dbacked Timberwolves | 55c | 2,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Timberwolves | 52c | 1,594$833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$833.13 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9c…74b3backed Timberwolves | 52c | 1,234$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.68 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x986c…dbc6backed Timberwolves | 53c | 1,099$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588 | 476 | 51.7%246 W · 230 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…e31fbacked Spurs | 46c | 1,022$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.74 | 473 | 54.8%259 W · 214 L | +14.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Spurs | 72c | 944.46$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.29 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e15…53fabacked Spurs | 46c | 923.91$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.91 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Spurs | 46c | 850.97$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.35 | 956 | 51.5%492 W · 464 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Spurs | 46c | 737.08$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.03 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Spurs | 46c | 600$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Timberwolves | 53c | 560$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.53 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca0f…780bbacked Spurs | 46c | 520.93$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.3 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked Timberwolves | 53c | 479.1$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.92 | 511 | 46.6%238 W · 273 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Timberwolves | 54c | 308.05$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.25 | 905 | 60.8%550 W · 355 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed Timberwolves | 54c | 275$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.5 | 502 | 41.2%207 W · 295 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Spurs | 46c | 250$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Timberwolves | 43c | 221$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.03 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Spurs | 45c | 150$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Spurs | 47c | 131.77$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.67 | 172 | 33.7%58 W · 114 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…b906backed Timberwolves | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 263 | 39.5%104 W · 159 L | -13.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Timberwolves | 43c | 93.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x125e…583fbacked Spurs | 61c | 86.3$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.95 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Timberwolves | 46c | 80.84$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1421…51d1backed Timberwolves | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Timberwolves | 49c | 55.56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Spurs | 51c | 55.56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed Spurs | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0f…09debacked Spurs | 48c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.23 | 154 | 40.3%62 W · 92 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Spurs | 47c | 32.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.97 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecec…d72fbacked Timberwolves | 45c | 24.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Spurs | 48c | 23.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 641 | 39%250 W · 391 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Timberwolves | 52c | 21.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Timberwolves (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Timberwolves (-2.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-3.5)Spurs won
- Spurs vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 121.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 232.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 233.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 234.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 235.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.