NBA · resolved market
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 234.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeffd39c56634cf0e79da9182e8893a0f6120f5a991477a7d45a1730031cacf06
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $81,557
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $83,907
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,557 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Under | 56c | 20,000$11,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,880.63 | 513 | 50.1%257 W · 256 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9315…a744backed Over | 50c | 12,000$6,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,000 | 67 | 67.2%45 W · 22 L | +10.7wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x00f4…df59backed Under | 50c | 12,000$6,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,000 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…4a30backed Under | 52c | 9,695$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,695.1 | 767 | 46.4%356 W · 411 L | -16.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11cf…2674backed Over | 46c | 9,261$4,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,260.06 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -6.0wins | -0.40per pick | 60cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 46c | 6,495$2,972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,971.83 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 46c | 6,320$2,890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,890.12 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Over | 46c | 3,000$1,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,380 | 379 | 44.3%168 W · 211 L | -10.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55f6…d09dbacked Over | 50c | 2,997$1,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,498.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 48c | 2,579$1,242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,242.18 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 74c | 2,018$1,497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.55 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4278…0e92backed Over | 52c | 1,751$910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910.43 | 416 | 52.2%217 W · 199 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Over | 40c | 1,707$691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$691.3 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 54c | 1,631$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750.06 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 54c | 1,619$874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$744.74 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 50c | 1,616$807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$806.55 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over | 48c | 1,563$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 653 | 39.5%258 W · 395 L | -24.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x882e…54cebacked Under | 67c | 906.96$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.3 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 47c | 843$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 672 | 52.7%354 W · 318 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f82…9b01backed Under | 50c | 702.78$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.39 | 166 | 35.5%59 W · 107 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a0…35b6backed Over | 51c | 588.24$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 153 | 48.4%74 W · 79 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Over | 49c | 549.67$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.5 | 172 | 33.7%58 W · 114 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 48c | 544$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.12 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe77f…8793backed Under | 56c | 535.71$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.71 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -7.3wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…f94bbacked Over | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 166 | 33.7%56 W · 110 L | -11.6wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdd…23d8backed Over | 51c | 470.63$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.02 | 104 | 54.8%57 W · 47 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 52c | 409$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.32 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Over | 52c | 400$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 402 | 43.8%176 W · 226 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 45c | 400$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 47c | 390$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.3 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 46c | 300$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.75 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b0…329ebacked Under | 54c | 300$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +55%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa35b…0eccbacked Under | 51c | 294.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.12 | 245 | 56.3%138 W · 107 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5007…119dbacked Over | 4c | 270$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Over | 49c | 222$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.78 | 401 | 46.9%188 W · 213 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Under | 50c | 220$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 656 | 49.2%323 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Over | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa7…2e1abacked Over | 51c | 189.57$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.68 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 54c | 180$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.8 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e46…0742backed Over | 50c | 160$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 239 | 48.5%116 W · 123 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Over | 47c | 130$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.84 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Over | 36c | 120$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f7…0899backed Over | 51c | 117.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe47b…1b4bbacked Under | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 357 | 39.8%142 W · 215 L | -25.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 52c | 96.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.27 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 53c | 94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.18 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87ae…811bbacked Under | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 175 | 45.7%80 W · 95 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…cb14backed Over | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 33c | 59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x117d…6542backed Over | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 564 | 54.3%306 W · 258 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f05…3dfcbacked Under | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe948…b82abacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 51c | 49.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.31 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over | 49c | 49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6de0…af02backed Over | 51c | 47.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over | 47c | 46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 46c | 44.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9b…d8afbacked Over | 51c | 41.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 49c | 31.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb906…2a75backed Over | 46c | 28.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5f…4884backed Over | 51c | 27.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…7aecbacked Under | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 436 | 47.9%209 W · 227 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0969…b289backed Over | 49c | 26.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 222 | 47.3%105 W · 117 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 54c | 23.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 234.5this page
- Spread: Timberwolves (-1.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-2.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-3.5)Spurs won
- Spurs vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 121.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 232.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 233.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 235.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.