NBA · resolved market
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 232.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x323497c184f88e57d5222e5aff9314fc32148a7d8598f78b767ba8328223b962
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $138,041
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $138,396
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $138,041 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf42…d698backed Under | 50c | 100,009$49,976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50,033.33 | 170 | 31.8%54 W · 116 L | -24.9wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Over | 50c | 97,250$48,625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48,625 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…fed6backed Over | 51c | 30,922$15,770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,770.22 | 200 | 55%110 W · 90 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 9,747$4,751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,996.57 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011c…31dfbacked Under | 49c | 8,163$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,163.27 | 334 | 47.9%160 W · 174 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Under | 49c | 7,575$3,712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,863.25 | 477 | 51.8%247 W · 230 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 49c | 4,820$2,362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,458.2 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 51c | 4,000$2,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,040 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d93…88babacked Over | 52c | 2,002$1,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 49c | 1,898$930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$968.47 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6f…014ebacked Under | 49c | 1,021$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.71 | 183 | 45.4%83 W · 100 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 49c | 951$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.6 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 49c | 790$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.9 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 53c | 408$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.24 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 47c | 408$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.24 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ad…819ebacked Over | 53c | 188.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 142 | 54.9%78 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 10c | 152.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb906…2a75backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…48e0backed Over | 51c | 88.59$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 166 | 58.4%97 W · 69 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aea…5590backed Over | 49c | 70.69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 180 | 51.1%92 W · 88 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Over | 51c | 64.31$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 244 | 54.1%132 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 52c | 42.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 51c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 47c | 32.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.97 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 50c | 27.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Under | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 830 | 39.4%327 W · 503 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Over | 51c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 421 | 43.7%184 W · 237 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 165 | 46.1%76 W · 89 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 232.5this page
- Spread: Timberwolves (-1.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-2.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-3.5)Spurs won
- Spurs vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 121.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 233.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 234.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 235.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.