Serie A · resolved market
Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-01-02?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9bbc33f005c5abaf1df5454ebb19643d4378abe7f26c4d626692c675e4d3b458
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $143,162
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $155,480
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $143,162 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x160b…4296backed Yes | 14c | 12,144$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,700.11 | 404 | 47.3%191 W · 213 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72b4…7d67backed Yes | 15c | 11,550$1,733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,732.5 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 13c | 9,026$1,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,134.81 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 15c | 3,544$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.04 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 14c | 3,024$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.58 | 129 | 23.3%30 W · 99 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3f…3445backed Yes | 2c | 2,800$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Yes | 15c | 2,453$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe073…9959backed Yes | 15c | 2,432$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 14c | 2,209$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.26 | 687 | 50.8%349 W · 338 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd73e…021cbacked Yes | 5c | 2,030$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.7 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1f…d0bbbacked Yes | 14c | 2,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24da…9561backed Yes | 15c | 1,999$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.87 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34dc…adfabacked Yes | 15c | 1,613$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 14c | 1,500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 366 | 30.9%113 W · 253 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Yes | 14c | 1,500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 95 | 56.8%54 W · 41 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…5513backed Yes | 2c | 1,500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa134…3ba2backed Yes | 4c | 1,336$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.37 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 14c | 1,250$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a59…a364backed Yes | 15c | 1,200$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 15c | 1,170$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.58 | 289 | 31.8%92 W · 197 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa99a…388ebacked Yes | 15c | 1,140$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2935…96f7backed Yes | 15c | 1,041$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.71 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3256…830cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +5.9wins | +0.28per pick | 29cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7643…fb95backed Yes | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x585c…f0a7backed Yes | 13c | 999.96$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.99 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Yes | 21c | 952.86$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 222 | 37.4%83 W · 139 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Yes | 14c | 848.63$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.81 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38fa…87b5backed Yes | 19c | 789.47$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 14c | 700$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 208 | 27.9%58 W · 150 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e8…3780backed Yes | 3c | 595.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6aa…8882backed Yes | 16c | 577.39$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.93 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Yes | 14c | 502.17$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.32 | 195 | 49.7%97 W · 98 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3457…0161backed Yes | 17c | 451.19$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0d…8bcabacked Yes | 14c | 428.57$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -32%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07b2…ea62backed Yes | 6c | 427.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdff3…70e4backed Yes | 13c | 400$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9393…bedfbacked Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ea…9bedbacked Yes | 14c | 399.65$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d3…bb8ebacked Yes | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ff…4085backed Yes | 15c | 289.2$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4f…3aa5backed Yes | 14c | 287.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 13c | 277.6$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.09 | 118 | 32.2%38 W · 80 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf43d…1e75backed Yes | 14c | 249.36$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.91 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -85%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf828…fca3backed Yes | 13c | 230$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24d8…e8a8backed Yes | 16c | 203.17$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.51 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…298cbacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Yes | 15c | 200$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a68…16c9backed Yes | 14c | 187$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 15c | 156$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 277 | 37.2%103 W · 174 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04cf…4175backed Yes | 14c | 114.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 16c | 108.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 248 | 49.2%122 W · 126 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2764…573cbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 17c | 99.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 153 | 57.5%88 W · 65 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff3…6eccbacked Yes | 15c | 94.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeecd…4fefbacked Yes | 17c | 90.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed Yes | 12c | 84.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5f…91fdbacked Yes | 14c | 83.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -5.7wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfb93…a608backed Yes | 14c | 75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee75…f23abacked Yes | 15c | 73.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Yes | 15c | 67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 171 | 42.7%73 W · 98 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34ad…040abacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a9…f43fbacked Yes | 21c | 48.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +427.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-01-02?this page
- Will AC Milan win on 2026-01-02?Yes won
- Will Cagliari Calcio vs. AC Milan end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.