TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Santos: Murkel Dellien vs Hernan Casanova

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Hernan Casanovaof Murkel Dellien, Hernan Casanova
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$34,315
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$39,512

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,315 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0267…7f7ebacked Murkel Dellien8c3,222$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.7630436.2%110 W · 194 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd1f…3f0fbacked Hernan Casanova80c3,158$2,527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631.671872.2%13 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick67cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Murkel Dellien21c3,107$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639.5611,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Murkel Dellien20c2,222$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.9762140.7%253 W · 368 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Hernan Casanova67c2,000$1,346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$654.584,53367.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L+306.6wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x551d…9326backed Hernan Casanova52c1,500$784 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$715.727739%108 W · 169 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Hernan Casanova78c1,470$1,143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.264,70349.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L+166.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Murkel Dellien48c1,022$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.5753843.5%234 W · 304 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5213…6a35backed Murkel Dellien44c905.01$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001,86544.7%834 W · 1,031 L+36.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29f6…d6b6backed Hernan Casanova80c899.48$716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.532100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Murkel Dellien21c833.27$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.2226131.4%82 W · 179 L-10.8wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-24%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Murkel Dellien7c549.39$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.238,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca20…7b68backed Murkel Dellien25c534.25$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.8257447.7%274 W · 300 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Hernan Casanova76c470.16$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.932,52339.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L-3.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Murkel Dellien45c348$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.0295140.1%381 W · 570 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+12%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ff6…d07ebacked Murkel Dellien30c332.53$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.761127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.18per pick45cpaid-45.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xeaac…d71dbacked Murkel Dellien44c320.7$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.111,86545.6%851 W · 1,014 L+50.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc358…c52ebacked Murkel Dellien5c316$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.82532%8 W · 17 L-2.9wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-35.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa724…7bdabacked Murkel Dellien6c290.29$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4229754.5%162 W · 135 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Murkel Dellien22c270.31$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.643,66145.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L-8.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Murkel Dellien19c234.04$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.58,50542.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L-166.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Murkel Dellien8c231.35$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.514,18544.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L+14.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Hernan Casanova62c224.05$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.0511956.3%67 W · 52 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Hernan Casanova74c218.41$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.497,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc5d1…edabbacked Murkel Dellien15c206.67$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317125.4%18 W · 53 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick25cpaid+10.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Hernan Casanova75c200$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503,67754.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L+107.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Hernan Casanova75c195.96$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.997,81650.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L+95.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Murkel Dellien47c186.4$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.182,22945%1,002 W · 1,227 L+3.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Murkel Dellien15c161.59$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.721,02843.3%445 W · 583 L-24.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Hernan Casanova79c147.36$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.26,78648.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L+56.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e08…e0bfbacked Murkel Dellien47c106.2$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.771163.6%7 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick71cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Murkel Dellien21c100.22$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.741,35443.9%595 W · 759 L-62.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-24.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Murkel Dellien26c99.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261,09452.4%573 W · 521 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe941…a496backed Murkel Dellien21c79.2$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8918152.5%95 W · 86 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc7e…70ecbacked Murkel Dellien47c75$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.251,00145.4%454 W · 547 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Murkel Dellien14c73.43$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.283,27013.8%450 W · 2,820 L-549.1wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-57.4%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Murkel Dellien47c71.65$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.681,67948.1%808 W · 871 L+36.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17f7…a181backed Hernan Casanova52c64.42$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.9251347%241 W · 272 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd154…9c74backed Murkel Dellien20c60$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.734847.1%164 W · 184 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a2b…d4e9backed Murkel Dellien47c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.58350.6%42 W · 41 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Murkel Dellien27c45.33$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.464,93441.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L-77.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05b7…c24abacked Murkel Dellien48c44.93$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5715346.4%71 W · 82 L-11.1wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-13.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x035f…6a38backed Hernan Casanova57c35.09$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.09540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6161…c834backed Hernan Casanova76c32.23$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.742572%18 W · 7 L+4.1wins+0.16per pick56cpaid+38.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2e7f…a844backed Murkel Dellien34c30$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0674346.3%344 W · 399 L-12.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13ff…2506backed Hernan Casanova73c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$821759.4%129 W · 88 L-9.8wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-7.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x52f6…af63backed Murkel Dellien40c29.35$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8118033.9%61 W · 119 L-8.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x629c…3f90backed Hernan Casanova73c27.4$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.415570.3%109 W · 46 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick66cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x87d1…3744backed Hernan Casanova73c27.4$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.41,10466.9%739 W · 365 L+36.9wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x89b5…de20backed Murkel Dellien48c25.42$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-40.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70ac…0c7dbacked Hernan Casanova69c20.49$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.42,53753.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L+61.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x31dd…7159backed Hernan Casanova54c18.55$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.5390340.2%363 W · 540 L+4.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-0.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.