Tennis · resolved market
Santos: Murkel Dellien vs Hernan Casanova
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9bc93930b2c6293bdd47a354121936ebb90f5cd7f051c3daf908d942b21e717e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hernan Casanovaof Murkel Dellien, Hernan Casanova
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,315
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,512
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,315 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0267…7f7ebacked Murkel Dellien | 8c | 3,222$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.76 | 304 | 36.2%110 W · 194 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1f…3f0fbacked Hernan Casanova | 80c | 3,158$2,527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.67 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Murkel Dellien | 21c | 3,107$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.56 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Murkel Dellien | 20c | 2,222$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.97 | 621 | 40.7%253 W · 368 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Hernan Casanova | 67c | 2,000$1,346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.58 | 4,533 | 67.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L | +306.6wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x551d…9326backed Hernan Casanova | 52c | 1,500$784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$715.7 | 277 | 39%108 W · 169 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42c9…9623backed Hernan Casanova | 78c | 1,470$1,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.26 | 4,703 | 49.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L | +166.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Murkel Dellien | 48c | 1,022$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.57 | 538 | 43.5%234 W · 304 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Murkel Dellien | 44c | 905.01$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1,865 | 44.7%834 W · 1,031 L | +36.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29f6…d6b6backed Hernan Casanova | 80c | 899.48$716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Murkel Dellien | 21c | 833.27$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.22 | 261 | 31.4%82 W · 179 L | -10.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Murkel Dellien | 7c | 549.39$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.23 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Murkel Dellien | 25c | 534.25$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.82 | 574 | 47.7%274 W · 300 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Hernan Casanova | 76c | 470.16$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.93 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Murkel Dellien | 45c | 348$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.02 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff6…d07ebacked Murkel Dellien | 30c | 332.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.76 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked Murkel Dellien | 44c | 320.7$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.11 | 1,865 | 45.6%851 W · 1,014 L | +50.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc358…c52ebacked Murkel Dellien | 5c | 316$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa724…7bdabacked Murkel Dellien | 6c | 290.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 297 | 54.5%162 W · 135 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Murkel Dellien | 22c | 270.31$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.64 | 3,661 | 45.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Murkel Dellien | 19c | 234.04$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Murkel Dellien | 8c | 231.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 4,185 | 44.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Hernan Casanova | 62c | 224.05$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.05 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Hernan Casanova | 74c | 218.41$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.49 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d1…edabbacked Murkel Dellien | 15c | 206.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 71 | 25.4%18 W · 53 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Hernan Casanova | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Hernan Casanova | 75c | 195.96$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Murkel Dellien | 47c | 186.4$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.18 | 2,229 | 45%1,002 W · 1,227 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Murkel Dellien | 15c | 161.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 1,028 | 43.3%445 W · 583 L | -24.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Hernan Casanova | 79c | 147.36$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e08…e0bfbacked Murkel Dellien | 47c | 106.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.77 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 71cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Murkel Dellien | 21c | 100.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 1,354 | 43.9%595 W · 759 L | -62.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Murkel Dellien | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,094 | 52.4%573 W · 521 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe941…a496backed Murkel Dellien | 21c | 79.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 181 | 52.5%95 W · 86 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…70ecbacked Murkel Dellien | 47c | 75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 1,001 | 45.4%454 W · 547 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Murkel Dellien | 14c | 73.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Murkel Dellien | 47c | 71.65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.68 | 1,679 | 48.1%808 W · 871 L | +36.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17f7…a181backed Hernan Casanova | 52c | 64.42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.92 | 513 | 47%241 W · 272 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd154…9c74backed Murkel Dellien | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 348 | 47.1%164 W · 184 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…d4e9backed Murkel Dellien | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Murkel Dellien | 27c | 45.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 4,934 | 41.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L | -77.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Murkel Dellien | 48c | 44.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 153 | 46.4%71 W · 82 L | -11.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x035f…6a38backed Hernan Casanova | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6161…c834backed Hernan Casanova | 76c | 32.23$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7f…a844backed Murkel Dellien | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 743 | 46.3%344 W · 399 L | -12.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13ff…2506backed Hernan Casanova | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 217 | 59.4%129 W · 88 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52f6…af63backed Murkel Dellien | 40c | 29.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 180 | 33.9%61 W · 119 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x629c…3f90backed Hernan Casanova | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 155 | 70.3%109 W · 46 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87d1…3744backed Hernan Casanova | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,104 | 66.9%739 W · 365 L | +36.9wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…de20backed Murkel Dellien | 48c | 25.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Hernan Casanova | 69c | 20.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31dd…7159backed Hernan Casanova | 54c | 18.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 903 | 40.2%363 W · 540 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Santos: Murkel Dellien vs Hernan Casanovathis page
- Dellien vs. Casanova: Match O/U 22.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.