Fifa International · resolved market
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Second half draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9bcdfa666f5d483502ec6cb91a20f937ec498a2d6796a6b655cfcbafc0cd5758
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,848
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,019
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,848 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 24c | 2,761$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.52 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 41c | 2,600$1,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,055.87 | 311 | 52.7%164 W · 147 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12f9…74babacked Yes | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 175 | 69.1%121 W · 54 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked No | 57c | 1,054$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.17 | 753 | 35.6%268 W · 485 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 69c | 782.83$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.68 | 460 | 47.2%217 W · 243 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 66c | 702.74$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.91 | 2,804 | 46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L | -27.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed No | 61c | 554.99$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.45 | 888 | 38.2%339 W · 549 L | +37.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed No | 50c | 458.64$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.32 | 272 | 55.9%152 W · 120 L | +36.1wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed No | 52c | 388.43$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.24 | 1,601 | 47.8%765 W · 836 L | +51.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 50c | 365.95$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.98 | 2,524 | 42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 61c | 325.47$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 2,793 | 46.6%1,301 W · 1,492 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d39…a150backed Yes | 20c | 313.08$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.96 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a90…e3a9backed Yes | 5c | 291.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe623…9800backed Yes | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed No | 59c | 234.66$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.21 | 855 | 50.6%433 W · 422 L | +54.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 65c | 184.19$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.47 | 656 | 51.7%339 W · 317 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb792…3df5backed Yes | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed No | 60c | 144.94$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.85 | 2,576 | 46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L | +35.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed No | 70c | 142$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 212 | 51.9%110 W · 102 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…9507backed No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 109 | 40.4%44 W · 65 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc8…4f5bbacked No | 72c | 130$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 152 | 52.6%80 W · 72 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 60c | 116.99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.32 | 1,135 | 40.2%456 W · 679 L | +5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 25c | 115$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 1,492 | 41%612 W · 880 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 64c | 106.33$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.28 | 2,805 | 55.1%1,546 W · 1,259 L | +70.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 60c | 101.94$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.03 | 722 | 47.2%341 W · 381 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x547d…457fbacked Yes | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9755…ab85backed Yes | 35c | 69.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1946…6367backed No | 64c | 65.56$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 87 | 56.3%49 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1506…e79ebacked Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 200 | 49%98 W · 102 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 67c | 55.36$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 4,027 | 38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L | -26.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 60c | 44.22$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 2,533 | 46.3%1,174 W · 1,359 L | +12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe39a…da0bbacked Yes | 34c | 42.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 93 | 30.1%28 W · 65 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 40c | 34.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 2,453 | 34.7%850 W · 1,603 L | +84.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93cf…c08abacked No | 66c | 34.09$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x633b…be99backed Yes | 31c | 33.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…044abacked Yes | 35c | 32.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | +9.2wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…b70cbacked Yes | 36c | 29.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 204 | 27%55 W · 149 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7886…ec60backed No | 60c | 28.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…be0abacked No | 69c | 25.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4358…3e76backed No | 64c | 19.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 210 | 51.4%108 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Argentina vs. Switzerland: Second half draw?this page
- Argentina to win the second half?No won
- Switzerland to win the second half?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.