Fifa International · resolved market
Switzerland to win the second half?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x222ceae413c566e2a0828b42760ad44c6724608ebf5d50e4e611fd60f274e818
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,000
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,940
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,000 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf58b…3980backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f9…74babacked No | 75c | 1,206$907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$907.19 | 175 | 69.1%121 W · 54 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 21c | 1,077$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$846.54 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 36c | 553.3$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.66 | 4,027 | 38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L | -26.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Yes | 20c | 362.7$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.26 | 1,601 | 47.8%765 W · 836 L | +51.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 67c | 287.78$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.92 | 2,804 | 46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L | -27.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Yes | 20c | 230$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 753 | 35.6%268 W · 485 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Yes | 20c | 162.45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.96 | 1,114 | 49.4%550 W · 564 L | +57.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…fc6dbacked Yes | 42c | 141.72$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.73 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | +14.2wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +89.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x75b6…5b63backed Yes | 23c | 126.09$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.09 | 104 | 19.2%20 W · 84 L | -10.2wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed No | 78c | 120$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 2,576 | 46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L | +35.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 77c | 116.98$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.96 | 1,135 | 40.2%456 W · 679 L | +5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 76c | 103.48$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.65 | 2,533 | 46.3%1,174 W · 1,359 L | +12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b89…4c43backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe39a…da0bbacked Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.99 | 93 | 30.1%28 W · 65 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Yes | 16c | 90.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.03 | 298 | 13.8%41 W · 257 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Yes | 20c | 85.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.44 | 855 | 50.6%433 W · 422 L | +54.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…99dbbacked Yes | 47c | 71.76$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.03 | 580 | 49.1%285 W · 295 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 19c | 53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 342 | 38.6%132 W · 210 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.03 | 1,795 | 44.2%794 W · 1,001 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 64c | 45.11$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 2,524 | 42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 59c | 32.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 2,793 | 46.6%1,301 W · 1,492 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Yes | 48c | 24.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 149 | 55%82 W · 67 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d55…9176backed Yes | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Switzerland to win the second half?this page
- Argentina to win the second half?No won
- Argentina vs. Switzerland: Second half draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.