Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will PFK CSKA Sofia vs. Qarabağ Ağdam FK end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9bdcd917d5f228d572958a730f28561988a037780212ff9e8302286155fa70c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,933
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,827
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,933 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked No | 53c | 25,333$13,348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,347.58 | 558 | 45%251 W · 307 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 50c | 19,581$9,789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,791.78 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 43c | 3,992$1,726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,265.58 | 2,999 | 42.4%1,273 W · 1,726 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…044abacked Yes | 29c | 2,696$782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,913.94 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 54c | 2,345$1,266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,078.78 | 2,478 | 33.9%840 W · 1,638 L | -95.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 71c | 1,603$1,138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,138.45 | 695 | 48.9%340 W · 355 L | +19.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x225b…9a83backed No | 37c | 1,519$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.09 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 31c | 1,003$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.35 | 1,611 | 38.8%625 W · 986 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60b1…8e7dbacked No | 72c | 841.06$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.46 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 71c | 840.09$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.46 | 920 | 50.9%468 W · 452 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 5c | 811.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.27 | 797 | 32.2%257 W · 540 L | -16.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Yes | 55c | 774.9$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.71 | 296 | 54.1%160 W · 136 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 40c | 689.22$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.09 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Yes | 49c | 653$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.71 | 535 | 64.7%346 W · 189 L | +29.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3740…a935backed Yes | 76c | 500$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 127 | 70.9%90 W · 37 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 29c | 359.57$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.3 | 1,117 | 35.8%400 W · 717 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Yes | 38c | 346.09$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.97 | 580 | 61.9%359 W · 221 L | +22.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Yes | 38c | 341.87$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.87 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1372…4ce0backed Yes | 52c | 286.57$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.57 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Yes | 29c | 273$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.83 | 172 | 33.7%58 W · 114 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 60c | 254.41$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.65 | 571 | 49.6%283 W · 288 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c2…73bfbacked Yes | 62c | 207.45$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.04 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Yes | 46c | 185.7$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.28 | 318 | 56%178 W · 140 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb99b…984dbacked Yes | 61c | 174.75$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42c7…c415backed Yes | 58c | 122.46$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.65 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 28c | 120.12$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.49 | 662 | 50.6%335 W · 327 L | +22.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked No | 25c | 112.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 314 | 30.3%95 W · 219 L | -15.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f2…0ff7backed No | 27c | 104.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed No | 46c | 94.17$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.19 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeeaa…15cebacked Yes | 43c | 93.62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.62 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +6.8wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 28c | 60.34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.44 | 1,046 | 50.2%525 W · 521 L | +28.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked No | 44c | 59.12$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 390 | 52.6%205 W · 185 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaca…f5d5backed No | 71c | 51$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.21 | 174 | 43.1%75 W · 99 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe6…4a1bbacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +10.1wins | +0.26per pick | 31cpaid | +330.1%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Yes | 57c | 48.51$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 72 | 68.1%49 W · 23 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed9d…444abacked Yes | 28c | 42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3743…7bc1backed Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Yes | 53c | 40.16$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 134 | 67.9%91 W · 43 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85af…c5ffbacked Yes | 46c | 39.76$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e90…4f65backed No | 72c | 39.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 28c | 39.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x911c…87bcbacked Yes | 50c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.6wins | -0.40per pick | 62cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb82f…9e1cbacked Yes | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked No | 69c | 23.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 158 | 28.5%45 W · 113 L | -18.5wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5183…d4dabacked No | 72c | 19.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will PFK CSKA Sofia vs. Qarabağ Ağdam FK end in a draw?this page
- Will PFK CSKA Sofia win on 2026-07-30?No won
- Will Qarabağ Ağdam FK win on 2026-07-30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.