Tennis · resolved market
National Bank Open (Doubles): Luz/Matos vs Arevalo/Pavic
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c18d22b4c2506dd0fea84cb2d6a0bcd7d5465067595adfe8e32ea946c3168b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Luz/Matosof Luz/Matos, Arevalo/Pavic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,462
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,690
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,462 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Arevalo/Pavic | 63c | 930.99$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.95 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Luz/Matos | 45c | 853.72$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.36 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a14…9fe4backed Luz/Matos | 28c | 853.56$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.79 | 409 | 35.7%146 W · 263 L | +7.8wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Luz/Matos | 59c | 634.39$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.59 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Arevalo/Pavic | 59c | 525.49$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.09 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb624…3d80backed Luz/Matos | 22c | 449.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.57 | 144 | 39.6%57 W · 87 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa177…4b0dbacked Luz/Matos | 22c | 307.04$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.04 | 135 | 25.9%35 W · 100 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Luz/Matos | 76c | 303.02$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.89 | 883 | 58.2%514 W · 369 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f6…e517backed Arevalo/Pavic | 78c | 257.92$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 70cpaid | -48%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c0…dadabacked Arevalo/Pavic | 8c | 251.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 546 | 34.4%188 W · 358 L | -15.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Arevalo/Pavic | 51c | 194.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.65 | 1,959 | 43.7%857 W · 1,102 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Luz/Matos | 24c | 193.41$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.82 | 195 | 37.4%73 W · 122 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca0…4b69backed Arevalo/Pavic | 13c | 161.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a62…4ab9backed Arevalo/Pavic | 43c | 151.16$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 145 | 36.6%53 W · 92 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Luz/Matos | 22c | 150$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 1,541 | 49.2%758 W · 783 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Arevalo/Pavic | 56c | 146.07$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.08 | 319 | 48.9%156 W · 163 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffb3…081ebacked Arevalo/Pavic | 80c | 130.26$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.21 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.26per pick | 72cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x513d…54c5backed Arevalo/Pavic | 75c | 118$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.08 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Arevalo/Pavic | 57c | 105$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.85 | 441 | 38.8%171 W · 270 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc151…2501backed Arevalo/Pavic | 10c | 102$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -55%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbaac…ff10backed Arevalo/Pavic | 67c | 99.98$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…6232backed Luz/Matos | 39c | 97.19$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.92 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Luz/Matos | 52c | 96.41$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.86 | 489 | 47.4%232 W · 257 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Arevalo/Pavic | 57c | 88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 318 | 42.5%135 W · 183 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa997…269cbacked Luz/Matos | 19c | 79.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Arevalo/Pavic | 77c | 71.29$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.89 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a3…3f10backed Arevalo/Pavic | 76c | 70.17$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.33 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59d8…ad87backed Arevalo/Pavic | 72c | 55.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Arevalo/Pavic | 76c | 52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 277 | 44.4%123 W · 154 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Luz/Matos | 22c | 45.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.82 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d10…b3d0backed Arevalo/Pavic | 76c | 45$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 821 | 59.4%488 W · 333 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Luz/Matos | 24c | 45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 695 | 45.8%318 W · 377 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…d5dabacked Arevalo/Pavic | 59c | 42.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 519 | 42.6%221 W · 298 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05b2…953bbacked Arevalo/Pavic | 57c | 36.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0c…47eabacked Arevalo/Pavic | 53c | 29.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Luz/Matos | 53c | 29.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Arevalo/Pavic | 62c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 653 | 46.4%303 W · 350 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked Arevalo/Pavic | 72c | 13.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 625 | 49.6%310 W · 315 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.