Serie A · resolved market
Cagliari Calcio vs. Como 1907: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c1e3126febd3ae284b7988f296c717a376f37bcc2f04fb8a89c0d3f6809fb7f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,377
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,377 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 15c | 8,616$1,253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,253.02 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 26c | 2,587$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.61 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Over | 74c | 2,025$1,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.5 | 45 | 75.6%34 W · 11 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52d8…99aebacked Over | 74c | 1,245$922 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.78 | 84 | 63.1%53 W · 31 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb51f…b7dbbacked Under | 15c | 628.99$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.26 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 20c | 524.97$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.61 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x054b…afd5backed Over | 66c | 504.55$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.55 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef2f…bfa2backed Under | 28c | 426.28$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 26c | 425.86$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.72 | 331 | 48.6%161 W · 170 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 74c | 405.41$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.41 | 74 | 64.9%48 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 20c | 383$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.17 | 168 | 38.1%64 W · 104 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 74c | 350$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91 | 112 | 68.8%77 W · 35 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ae…ef8bbacked Over | 67c | 243.84$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc91c…f704backed Over | 74c | 150.41$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.11 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5562…3b41backed Over | 74c | 150$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 93 | 53.8%50 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1d…7e54backed Over | 74c | 148.35$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 73cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x719d…10fbbacked Over | 74c | 127.52$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 72c | 104.17$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.17 | 180 | 55%99 W · 81 L | +15.9wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 34c | 99.79$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.93 | 932 | 52%485 W · 447 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 19c | 95.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 491 | 37.5%184 W · 307 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 26c | 77.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 652 | 54.1%353 W · 299 L | +19.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab4…3d2dbacked Under | 21c | 72.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 179 | 58.7%105 W · 74 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 26c | 62.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 372 | 50.5%188 W · 184 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 23c | 55.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 148 | 45.3%67 W · 81 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…15c2backed Under | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 267 | 47.2%126 W · 141 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 73c | 44.44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 985 | 44.9%442 W · 543 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Under | 29c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -24%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Over | 68c | 34.09$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 223 | 73.1%163 W · 60 L | +20.4wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25f6…fcd2backed Over | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 46 | 71.7%33 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…e91cbacked Over | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 70cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc93b…9e73backed Over | 80c | 19.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 58cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8f…2b46backed Over | 73c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf877…77e1backed Over | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Over | 73c | 15.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cagliari Calcio vs. Como 1907: O/U 1.5this page
- Cagliari Calcio vs. Como 1907: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Cagliari Calcio vs. Como 1907: O/U 2.5Over won
- Cagliari Calcio vs. Como 1907: O/U 3.5Under won
- Cagliari Calcio vs. Como 1907: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Como 1907 (-1.5)Cagliari Calcio won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.