Serie A · resolved market
Cagliari Calcio vs. Como 1907: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2a0390ec7bac67dc9995527a6693993511406d01358ac0a268024bb8f60a249
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,915
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,915 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 71c | 4,599$3,258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,340.96 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7197…14c8backed Over | 28c | 3,000$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Under | 75c | 2,022$1,517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.5 | 45 | 75.6%34 W · 11 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 25c | 1,980$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.96 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 39c | 1,500$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.15 | 298 | 62.4%186 W · 112 L | +34.5wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x00fa…9af5backed Under | 74c | 1,408$1,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.14 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Over | 27c | 1,139$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.29 | 65 | 35.4%23 W · 42 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Over | 40c | 1,080$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.94 | 232 | 44%102 W · 130 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e31…72debacked Over | 16c | 940.13$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 69c | 937.51$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.2 | 168 | 38.1%64 W · 104 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 70c | 585.53$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.85 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x054b…afd5backed Over | 37c | 535.82$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Under | 74c | 483.75$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.77 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +27%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 79c | 469.4$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.65 | 498 | 50.6%252 W · 246 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…30fcbacked Under | 65c | 426.08$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.08 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff9…009dbacked Under | 78c | 384.62$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.62 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 63c | 349.21$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.21 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1af3…fbe3backed Over | 26c | 289$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.14 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Under | 75c | 218$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.5 | 26 | 88.5%23 W · 3 L | +3.8wins | +0.15per pick | 74cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Under | 80c | 178.31$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.66 | 36 | 75%27 W · 9 L | +6.5wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 18c | 158.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 165 | 26.1%43 W · 122 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5562…3b41backed Over | 26c | 150$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 93 | 53.8%50 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 65c | 138.95$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.21 | 491 | 37.5%184 W · 307 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Over | 14c | 133.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 20cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e31…a753backed Over | 24c | 133.06$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 147 | 48.3%71 W · 76 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…edcabacked Over | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 62c | 97.89$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 467 | 42.8%200 W · 267 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over | 28c | 94.38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 152 | 59.9%91 W · 61 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…f6bfbacked Over | 27c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00b7…5b93backed Over | 38c | 76.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x030d…8e95backed Over | 42c | 71.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Over | 37c | 68.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 74c | 67.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 331 | 44.7%148 W · 183 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7700…2d07backed Over | 33c | 60.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2449…3799backed Over | 26c | 54.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe83…3b00backed Under | 74c | 53$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 68cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 26c | 51.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 260 | 40%104 W · 156 L | -13.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…9190backed Over | 39c | 50.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Under | 76c | 35.45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +6.3wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9152…abfbbacked Under | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +32%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf05f…91d5backed Under | 75c | 25.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Under | 77c | 23.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Under | 62c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 150 | 41.3%62 W · 88 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 67c | 21.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 932 | 52%485 W · 447 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19cf…5636backed Under | 75c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a0…e5ccbacked Under | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1217…690abacked Under | 79c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked Under | 74c | 15.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 249 | 55%137 W · 112 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…7f64backed Under | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc6…7affbacked Under | 76c | 13.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cagliari Calcio vs. Como 1907: O/U 3.5this page
- Cagliari Calcio vs. Como 1907: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Cagliari Calcio vs. Como 1907: O/U 1.5Over won
- Cagliari Calcio vs. Como 1907: O/U 2.5Over won
- Cagliari Calcio vs. Como 1907: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Como 1907 (-1.5)Cagliari Calcio won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.