NHL · resolved market
Spread: Ducks (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c68046264b77535953257c93b9a8bf0482d2dbabc565c5b741014bda9200290
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Utahof Ducks, Utah
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,575
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,750
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,575 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Ducks | 32c | 3,388$1,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,074.58 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4085…583fbacked Ducks | 4c | 3,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Utah | 68c | 1,998$1,359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.36 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Ducks | 32c | 1,736$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.35 | 695 | 50.1%348 W · 347 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Utah | 68c | 1,418$964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.83 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Utah | 68c | 824$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.68 | 728 | 47.9%349 W · 379 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefc9…b337backed Utah | 70c | 639$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.7 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Ducks | 33c | 368$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.34 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Utah | 69c | 366.36$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.57 | 286 | 52.4%150 W · 136 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Utah | 67c | 274.72$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.66 | 326 | 50%163 W · 163 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Utah | 69c | 274.64$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.14 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb080…5eddbacked Ducks | 30c | 250$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 162 | 46.9%76 W · 86 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Ducks | 28c | 188.91$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.89 | 533 | 37.5%200 W · 333 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Utah | 70c | 142$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 619 | 59.1%366 W · 253 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Utah | 68c | 117$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.44 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Ducks | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 572 | 38.1%218 W · 354 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Ducks | 30c | 82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8343…1788backed Utah | 70c | 75$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa024…4929backed Utah | 71c | 75$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Ducks | 30c | 67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b0…53c3backed Utah | 72c | 43.06$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…f95dbacked Utah | 72c | 43.06$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 33 | 78.8%26 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 69cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee1a…5a46backed Utah | 72c | 43.06$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30c0…b570backed Ducks | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5895…0b37backed Ducks | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6244…d154backed Utah | 72c | 38.57$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd77b…0fcfbacked Ducks | 30c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Utah | 69c | 34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 583 | 46.5%271 W · 312 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Utah | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 295 | 50.2%148 W · 147 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…88dfbacked Utah | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Utah | 68c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 291 | 47.4%138 W · 153 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7753backed Utah | 68c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 216 | 48.1%104 W · 112 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Utah | 68c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 418 | 51.4%215 W · 203 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Utah | 68c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 605 | 49.3%298 W · 307 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9adf…3f2fbacked Utah | 69c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Utah | 70c | 16.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf275…7050backed Utah | 72c | 14.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 85 | 68.2%58 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Ducks (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Utah (-1.5)Utah won
- Utah vs. DucksUtah won
- Utah vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.