Premier League · resolved market
Will Nottingham Forest vs. Brentford end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c7f8bbcb63585333ec0eba22cb58c011cfdac433f3bd360e2f3d6448dd091e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,763
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,001
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,763 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e2c…7334backed Yes | 28c | 5,000$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec7…4723backed No | 72c | 5,000$3,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,400 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 74cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…a990backed Yes | 29c | 1,724$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed No | 76c | 1,250$950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 369 | 54.5%201 W · 168 L | +50.1wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 71c | 999.97$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.99 | 907 | 51.3%465 W · 442 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd523…0aa4backed Yes | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed No | 76c | 332.63$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.2 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4591…d19ebacked No | 71c | 283$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.07 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 24c | 227.9$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.85 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c53…c9b0backed Yes | 28c | 184.09$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.55 | 63 | 27%17 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…6d97backed Yes | 25c | 180$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d40…f95abacked Yes | 29c | 152.66$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.27 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83dd…fe0fbacked Yes | 28c | 142.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b6d…58f6backed No | 75c | 135$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -5.3wins | -0.18per pick | 67cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5543…4195backed Yes | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -4.5wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2885…486cbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -6.7wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8549…41f8backed Yes | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 272 | 27.9%76 W · 196 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 72c | 58.63$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 834 | 59.4%495 W · 339 L | +25.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked No | 75c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 72c | 39.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 815 | 59%481 W · 334 L | +32.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb64…a57ebacked No | 72c | 34.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 74cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x981b…b8eabacked Yes | 30c | 34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ff…ca90backed No | 70c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 213 | 53.1%113 W · 100 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeacf…ed1dbacked No | 71c | 29.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fc…ca96backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -4.3wins | -0.25per pick | 72cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nottingham Forest vs. Brentford end in a draw?this page
- Will Brentford win on 2025-08-17?No won
- Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-08-17?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.