TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Clutchain Female vs MIBR fe (BO3) - Rainhas do Clutch FERJEE Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
MIBR feof Clutchain Female, MIBR fe
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$35,747
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$41,277

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,747 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x29b5…cc6cbacked Clutchain Female65c7,409$4,844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,844.185,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x54ea…f74abacked MIBR fe36c2,400$864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,535.8425344.3%112 W · 141 L-7.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked MIBR fe38c1,892$715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,177.351,01152.3%529 W · 482 L+27.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x815f…1eefbacked MIBR fe34c1,423$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$939.2719351.3%99 W · 94 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ee4…ed67backed MIBR fe34c1,284$439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$845.2719340.4%78 W · 115 L-10.1wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-20.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Clutchain Female66c1,283$844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$843.542,00953.9%1,082 W · 927 L+7.6wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed MIBR fe58c1,105$642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.282,62630.9%812 W · 1,814 L-105.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked MIBR fe58c782.78$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.381,30241.2%536 W · 766 L-50.1wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-24.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xefbc…b344backed Clutchain Female62c717.97$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.1440542%170 W · 235 L-10.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4d3…4b1fbacked MIBR fe34c717.51$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$473.565954.2%32 W · 27 L+5.2wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+19.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed Clutchain Female66c615.38$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.1559755.4%331 W · 266 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb25…eb12backed Clutchain Female66c518.35$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.5350051.4%257 W · 243 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Clutchain Female61c500$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30575833.4%253 W · 505 L-48.9wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-31%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked Clutchain Female79c480.78$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.511,39365.9%918 W · 475 L+26.8wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9c9…6686backed MIBR fe34c419.35$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.866654.5%36 W · 30 L+4.6wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+12.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed MIBR fe35c415.98$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.4338841.8%162 W · 226 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf66…e823backed MIBR fe37c409.94$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.2618041.7%75 W · 105 L-0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked MIBR fe48c367.09$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.8940137.2%149 W · 252 L-17.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Clutchain Female59c356.23$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.062,62451.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x615d…bd5bbacked MIBR fe34c353.49$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.35641.1%23 W · 33 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1405…9882backed Clutchain Female67c320.21$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.244042.5%17 W · 23 L-4.8wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-17.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Clutchain Female35c320$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11266446.4%308 W · 356 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf20b…e27dbacked MIBR fe33c312.14$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.533340.2%134 W · 199 L+13.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+11.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked MIBR fe33c299.96$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.9791945.8%421 W · 498 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5135…7217backed Clutchain Female66c295.45$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1951,62052.7%853 W · 767 L+57.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8726…0f36backed Clutchain Female65c286$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.974054.6%404 W · 336 L+15.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Clutchain Female63c284.8$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.182,13642.9%916 W · 1,220 L-68.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e7c…164dbacked MIBR fe32c268.44$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.0634943%150 W · 199 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed MIBR fe30c259.9$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.932,52243%1,085 W · 1,437 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed MIBR fe36c222$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.3248851.8%253 W · 235 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeebb…0b96backed MIBR fe34c220.74$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.7435839.4%141 W · 217 L+1.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed MIBR fe60c216.35$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.572,50841%1,029 W · 1,479 L-115.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Clutchain Female56c209.72$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.551,63043.2%704 W · 926 L-32.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54d1…13f4backed MIBR fe36c198.75$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.27949.4%39 W · 40 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1065…6218backed MIBR fe34c196.68$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.5948240%193 W · 289 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6986…3369backed Clutchain Female67c196.01$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.199849%48 W · 50 L-6.2wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-5.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe893…afaebacked MIBR fe34c183.52$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.4711444.7%51 W · 63 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15bc…4a7ebacked MIBR fe39c175.15$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.3620147.8%96 W · 105 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb98a…914bbacked MIBR fe38c174.28$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.6911446.5%53 W · 61 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfb87…a45dbacked MIBR fe38c166.37$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.7330450.7%154 W · 150 L-0.8wins0.00per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7029…1136backed MIBR fe33c160.74$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.4721351.2%109 W · 104 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+12%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed MIBR fe33c154.99$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.5960451%308 W · 296 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf679…2d3dbacked MIBR fe42c150.36$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.2436440.1%146 W · 218 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-21.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5b4c…6952backed Clutchain Female70c143.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85c3…700cbacked MIBR fe36c141.58$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.6127549.5%136 W · 139 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaebf…4e6abacked MIBR fe38c131$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.2226554.3%144 W · 121 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Clutchain Female34c120.16$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.526,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee22…7054backed MIBR fe34c120$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.211844.1%52 W · 66 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked MIBR fe53c119$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.771,59146.6%741 W · 850 L+30.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde25…c0a5backed Clutchain Female66c101.63$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.3422049.1%108 W · 112 L-8.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-4.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x267c…5bfdbacked MIBR fe39c101.26$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.6117955.3%99 W · 80 L+11.8wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+18.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed MIBR fe67c101$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.72,36246.6%1,100 W · 1,262 L-53.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57b2…9da2backed MIBR fe36c100.14$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.4932844.8%147 W · 181 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+14.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe3b0…b4d1backed Clutchain Female64c100$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6426650.8%135 W · 131 L+11.0wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+12%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9696…2bc3backed Clutchain Female63c100$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6336057.5%207 W · 153 L+13.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5867…2e20backed MIBR fe75c97.07$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.6221636.1%78 W · 138 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe803…b60ebacked MIBR fe34c96.88$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.9432458%188 W · 136 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc315…a989backed Clutchain Female25c95.56$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9914322.4%32 W · 111 L-10.2wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-33.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc263…1e83backed Clutchain Female66c94.91$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.5834750.7%176 W · 171 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed MIBR fe33c92.72$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6219543.6%85 W · 110 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed MIBR fe33c92$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.6457641.1%237 W · 339 L-21.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x13e5…1ea5backed MIBR fe39c91.31$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.8347053.2%250 W · 220 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcfe…d420backed MIBR fe39c90$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.968753.9%370 W · 317 L-21.6wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Clutchain Female32c84.25$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.964,69143.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L-83.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc846…c413backed MIBR fe34c82.81$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.6617038.8%66 W · 104 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-4.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc593…ea8cbacked MIBR fe37c81.92$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.2727156.8%154 W · 117 L+13.2wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7129…4517backed MIBR fe39c80$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.81,07637.6%405 W · 671 L+34.0wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f06…a799backed MIBR fe37c79.44$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.066647%31 W · 35 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-14.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed MIBR fe61c75.15$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.342,32645.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Clutchain Female19c72.64$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.553,45929.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L-279.9wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Clutchain Female23c72.1$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.452,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xe26b…a9ecbacked MIBR fe37c69.22$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.616761.2%41 W · 26 L+5.8wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+21.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2140…0e12backed MIBR fe31c65.04$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.5855039.6%218 W · 332 L-20.7wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-11.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x94d2…cfbdbacked MIBR fe46c62$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.682,11047.2%995 W · 1,115 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac06…f93dbacked MIBR fe44c62$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.7211345.1%51 W · 62 L-7.0wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked MIBR fe68c57.04$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.217,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe432…934abacked Clutchain Female62c55$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.13756.8%21 W · 16 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+22%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaf5f…2184backed Clutchain Female56c53.2$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.798549.4%42 W · 43 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e46…8c1cbacked MIBR fe31c53.06$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.6123654.7%129 W · 107 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6df3…b8bebacked MIBR fe38c51.51$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.9821254.2%115 W · 97 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8442…9df5backed Clutchain Female62c50$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316175.4%46 W · 15 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick71cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x09da…50bcbacked MIBR fe70c48.52$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.4842255.7%235 W · 187 L+13.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb55b…c5b4backed MIBR fe37c47.29$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.7935153.8%189 W · 162 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x08e0…f4a0backed Clutchain Female64c46.88$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3083856.1%470 W · 368 L+31.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x094a…e4a9backed MIBR fe31c43.99$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.353842.1%16 W · 22 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36d9…c3cabacked MIBR fe32c40.47$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.6619954.8%109 W · 90 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb155…ca84backed MIBR fe65c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1432139.9%128 W · 193 L-13.1wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8a80…11c5backed Clutchain Female61c39.01$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7375438.9%293 W · 461 L-38.9wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-24.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6f1…dd82backed MIBR fe48c35.54$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.549152.7%48 W · 43 L-0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x787b…86c3backed MIBR fe36c34$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.764953.1%26 W · 23 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x183b…b6e9backed MIBR fe42c32.78$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.1732054.4%174 W · 146 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe24f…614abacked MIBR fe32c31.25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.252055%11 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+18.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1fd6…d4a0backed MIBR fe35c30$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.517041.2%70 W · 100 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f53…d5abbacked Clutchain Female53c28.3$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1532649.7%162 W · 164 L+0.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9444…048ebacked Clutchain Female64c26.09$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.814751.7%76 W · 71 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b25…10aabacked MIBR fe39c26.02$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.8785054.4%462 W · 388 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked MIBR fe65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72,77637.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L-140.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x189e…5aaebacked MIBR fe65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.0318753.5%100 W · 87 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xde56…c2f9backed Clutchain Female63c18.85$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9312844.5%57 W · 71 L-9.7wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-11.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6b86…5552backed Clutchain Female68c16.28$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0716363.2%103 W · 60 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.