Premier League · resolved market
Arsenal vs. Brentford: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c87cae58acf5848dc3372d697cf065d6001e7883f3bae21492df9351ca34ce6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,571
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,707
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,571 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 79c | 7,005$5,554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,450.94 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78ad…45ccbacked Under | 72c | 6,015$4,330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,684.07 | 109 | 62.4%68 W · 41 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 23c | 4,739$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080.38 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1420…9daabacked Over | 25c | 4,100$1,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,028.99 | 106 | 36.8%39 W · 67 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 19c | 2,689$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.61 | 1,004 | 46.3%465 W · 539 L | +25.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked Over | 29c | 999.98$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.99 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed Over | 37c | 730.31$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.24 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | +7.7wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 61c | 717.97$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.52 | 4,768 | 41.8%1,993 W · 2,775 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755d…a1dabacked Over | 44c | 568.32$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…6541backed Over | 29c | 500$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 56 | 25%14 W · 42 L | -9.4wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x86fe…025cbacked Under | 71c | 492.96$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.96 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 70c | 458.04$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.36 | 492 | 54.9%270 W · 222 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 69c | 338.21$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.44 | 1,006 | 46.6%469 W · 537 L | -20.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 31c | 315.67$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.86 | 370 | 36.2%134 W · 236 L | -18.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x024e…2e48backed Over | 25c | 215.26$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.1 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb04…3ce1backed Over | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 161 | 60.9%98 W · 63 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8393…253cbacked Over | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 66c | 198$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.32 | 457 | 51.2%234 W · 223 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…0419backed Under | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 48 | 70.8%34 W · 14 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa26e…d280backed Over | 30c | 136.67$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 100 | 31%31 W · 69 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -12%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Over | 30c | 131.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 234 | 35.9%84 W · 150 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9804…d512backed Under | 62c | 107$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.66 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 68c | 82.1$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.23 | 401 | 50.1%201 W · 200 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Over | 19c | 74.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed Under | 70c | 70.9$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.51 | 126 | 46.8%59 W · 67 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked Over | 15c | 69.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 139 | 41%57 W · 82 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2897…0004backed Over | 31c | 63.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 286 | 54.2%155 W · 131 L | -11.3wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5e…4167backed Over | 30c | 55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c25…2971backed Under | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc65…49d8backed Under | 66c | 45.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18e5…260cbacked Over | 33c | 39.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Over | 45c | 38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 497 | 53.7%267 W · 230 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbec8…ad82backed Over | 33c | 37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad47…0016backed Over | 33c | 37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb725…002cbacked Over | 33c | 37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7be2…e1eebacked Over | 33c | 37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48e…322bbacked Over | 33c | 37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…46f1backed Under | 64c | 35.46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 132 | 49.2%65 W · 67 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x473b…bb74backed Over | 32c | 32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa46d…59c4backed Over | 42c | 28.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 58c | 27.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 1,272 | 50.4%641 W · 631 L | -53.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26be…d699backed Under | 55c | 23.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +9.6wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5007…493fbacked Under | 66c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 26 | 80.8%21 W · 5 L | +3.8wins | +0.15per pick | 66cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x83b2…bbdbbacked Under | 65c | 22.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +38%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Under | 74c | 20.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 259 | 49.4%128 W · 131 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 891 | 52.9%471 W · 420 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arsenal vs. Brentford: O/U 3.5this page
- Arsenal vs. Brentford: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Arsenal vs. Brentford: O/U 1.5Over won
- Arsenal vs. Brentford: O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: Arsenal (-1.5)Arsenal won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.