MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d11e281753897a5ac07b70cf6d921a1e254e52b3135e61a227a652dc87f7bef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Colorado Rockiesof San Diego Padres, Colorado Rockies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,457
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,690
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,457 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Diego Padres | 69c | 13,291$9,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,132 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…b33bbacked San Diego Padres | 33c | 12,268$4,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,087.52 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Colorado Rockies | 28c | 10,775$3,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,741.18 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Colorado Rockies | 67c | 6,523$4,339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,184.5 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Colorado Rockies | 54c | 4,143$2,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,917.24 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed Colorado Rockies | 67c | 2,242$1,502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740.13 | 208 | 45.2%94 W · 114 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0099…b070backed San Diego Padres | 48c | 2,166$1,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,043.66 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Colorado Rockies | 67c | 1,584$1,061 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.72 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked San Diego Padres | 15c | 1,364$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.16 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed San Diego Padres | 64c | 1,347$862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$862.03 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Colorado Rockies | 49c | 1,019$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.95 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed San Diego Padres | 63c | 624.54$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.54 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Colorado Rockies | 67c | 619.05$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.07 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Colorado Rockies | 67c | 554.94$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.16 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Colorado Rockies | 72c | 520.47$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.48 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Colorado Rockies | 41c | 500$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed San Diego Padres | 30c | 481.07$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.32 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Colorado Rockies | 50c | 463.33$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.53 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Colorado Rockies | 52c | 425.73$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.01 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed San Diego Padres | 6c | 422.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x949e…20afbacked Colorado Rockies | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.62 | 228 | 31.6%72 W · 156 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed San Diego Padres | 29c | 379.34$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Colorado Rockies | 58c | 340.31$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.3 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d38…cc4ebacked Colorado Rockies | 71c | 207.99$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.32 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Colorado Rockies | 67c | 199$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.67 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed San Diego Padres | 72c | 195.18$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.53 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Colorado Rockies | 59c | 146.37$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.45 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked San Diego Padres | 72c | 145.78$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.36 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked San Diego Padres | 64c | 139.18$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.08 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Colorado Rockies | 71c | 139$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.31 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Colorado Rockies | 63c | 119.65$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.51 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Colorado Rockies | 57c | 112.1$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.41 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Colorado Rockies | 58c | 109.84$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.41 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Colorado Rockies | 60c | 98.71$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.17 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed Colorado Rockies | 71c | 97.34$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.88 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Colorado Rockies | 55c | 96.79$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.21 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa1…2c8abacked San Diego Padres | 31c | 96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 90 | 41.1%37 W · 53 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Colorado Rockies | 63c | 89.93$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.56 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed San Diego Padres | 64c | 72.08$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.13 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4efc…2d8dbacked San Diego Padres | 34c | 65.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb323…e253backed San Diego Padres | 74c | 65$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.79 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec7…4b43backed San Diego Padres | 30c | 52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Colorado Rockies | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e1…b1aebacked Colorado Rockies | 51c | 38.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…5d18backed Colorado Rockies | 71c | 32.41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed San Diego Padres | 41c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Colorado Rockies | 42c | 27.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99d4…7c0dbacked San Diego Padres | 72c | 19.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 289 | 48.1%139 W · 150 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Colorado Rockies | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)this page
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres won
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 4.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego PadresNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.