MLB · resolved market
Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xebb6180632651c9ad94edadd9ddd543e108742e8ff5b2aed66291e0514f17b65
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,966
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,976
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,966 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Under | 52c | 4,500$2,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,159.99 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed Over | 48c | 3,991$1,916 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,915.73 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +237.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 71c | 3,953$2,788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,164.8 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99aa…6c5abacked Under | 53c | 3,703$1,962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,740.23 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 47c | 3,542$1,665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,664.69 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca97…49f6backed Over | 29c | 2,737$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 47c | 1,395$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.67 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd58d…c2d6backed Under | 53c | 1,038$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.73 | 151 | 49.7%75 W · 76 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 16c | 993.03$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.36 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 19c | 912.17$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.59 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 48c | 794$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.12 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba62…3e29backed Under | 53c | 566.04$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.04 | 221 | 49.3%109 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 475 | 45.9%218 W · 257 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 35c | 431.88$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.05 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5e…2ea3backed Over | 8c | 362.75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.02 | 45 | 0%0 W · 45 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 55c | 345.77$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.6 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb272…5030backed Under | 52c | 289.51$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.96 | 362 | 46.1%167 W · 195 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa09b…9b09backed Over | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 71c | 187.11$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.01 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 47c | 163$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.61 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 71c | 121.91$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.93 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 52c | 112.74$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.74 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Over | 47c | 84$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.48 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7774…2b2cbacked Under | 53c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Under | 71c | 78.89$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.82 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 53c | 60.01$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.26 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Over | 47c | 49.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4732…f40dbacked Under | 71c | 47.97$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 165 | 39.4%65 W · 100 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Over | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 79c | 32.84$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 47c | 31.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 979 | 44.4%435 W · 544 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 53c | 30.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Under | 53c | 23.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c76…6e88backed Under | 73c | 23.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93e4…0a36backed Over | 48c | 22.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 53c | 19.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5this page
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres won
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 4.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego PadresNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.