Fifa International · resolved market
Austria vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d2812c4c379486e59430636071656b9ea3ee47e62200db02da4c395f03be690
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $341,390
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $543,109
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $341,390 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3333…15bdbacked Over | 60c | 100,206$60,453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39,752.44 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2c…9bc1backed Under | 40c | 65,473$26,189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,189.16 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b09…2c43backed Under | 41c | 12,619$5,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,146.53 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 49c | 12,449$6,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,098.67 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 5,137$2,588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,588.08 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Over | 31c | 3,500$1,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,415.16 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +119.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 50c | 2,451$1,216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,215.76 | 1,711 | 35.2%603 W · 1,108 L | -68.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 50c | 1,549$773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$773.34 | 508 | 50%254 W · 254 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 17c | 1,500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,245 | 454 | 21.4%97 W · 357 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc7…43e5backed Over | 27c | 1,366$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$992.22 | 138 | 30.4%42 W · 96 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 40c | 1,257$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.41 | 740 | 34.1%252 W · 488 L | -36.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Over | 18c | 996.93$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$817.15 | 176 | 29%51 W · 125 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 46c | 892.61$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.65 | 864 | 55.3%478 W · 386 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc367…a0b4backed Over | 20c | 766$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.8 | 71 | 36.6%26 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 67c | 666$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.22 | 293 | 43%126 W · 167 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…1639backed Over | 61c | 339.21$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.29 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | -5.2wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 25c | 318.99$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.22 | 2,411 | 53%1,278 W · 1,133 L | +75.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e46…60d6backed Over | 60c | 308.27$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.31 | 117 | 59.8%70 W · 47 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 43c | 237.91$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.38 | 760 | 48.7%370 W · 390 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec45…6ba6backed Under | 51c | 184.96$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.64 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…f5ecbacked Under | 44c | 184.14$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.02 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 47c | 174.45$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.49 | 1,627 | 32.1%523 W · 1,104 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…c02abacked Under | 17c | 167$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 31c | 162.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.44 | 112 | 21.4%24 W · 88 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Under | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Under | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 246 | 54.1%133 W · 113 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc58a…b8f8backed Under | 41c | 127.76$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.38 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 59c | 118.64$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.64 | 551 | 53%292 W · 259 L | +11.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Under | 67c | 118.35$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.49 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b7…d2e3backed Over | 60c | 108.33$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1155…2315backed Under | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 81 | 64.2%52 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd815…1cdebacked Under | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 39c | 68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 465 | 36.1%168 W · 297 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…ba79backed Under | 57c | 66.29$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.82 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2502…87e5backed Under | 43c | 63.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x751f…3100backed Over | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67c9…1798backed Over | 38c | 61.61$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.2 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -3.8wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 49c | 58.76$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 237 | 51.1%121 W · 116 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde66…be48backed Under | 53c | 45.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae02…7ed0backed Under | 39c | 40.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x142d…bf73backed Under | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c67…e838backed Under | 69c | 33.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62ff…ec56backed Under | 40c | 32.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd155…8250backed Under | 40c | 32.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 307 | 48.2%148 W · 159 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9f…5403backed Under | 72c | 32.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4148…4397backed Over | 48c | 23.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Under | 56c | 21.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 341 | 44.3%151 W · 190 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ab…10c8backed Over | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 97 | 59.8%58 W · 39 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dcf…87b8backed Under | 72c | 16.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Austria vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5this page
- Austria vs. Ghana: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Austria vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5Over won
- Austria vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5Over won
- Austria vs. Ghana: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Austria (-1.5)Austria won
- Spread: Austria (-2.5)Austria won
- Spread: Ghana (-1.5)Austria won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.