MLB · resolved market
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d2998d8e60ac70b9a35bbbafe947d89e84956578fb360f055961432bdfadd14
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,595
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,014
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,595 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 31c | 4,343$1,356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,356.16 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 69c | 3,912$2,692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,219.7 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Under | 49c | 1,520$745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$775.2 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 31c | 1,307$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.54 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 46c | 652$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.92 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 48c | 567.7$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.79 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 55c | 563.25$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.76 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 47c | 495.91$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.22 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76aa…58cebacked Under | 73c | 410.96$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.96 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 52c | 311.09$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.66 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6b…1a3ebacked Over | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 56c | 249.77$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.9 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 44c | 239.74$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.49 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 78c | 120.1$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.28 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 54c | 112$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 55c | 98.03$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.11 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 45c | 96.07$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.23 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 32c | 93.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.63 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 32c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 48c | 53.26$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Over | 33c | 43.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Over | 59c | 38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 74c | 31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…2b92backed Under | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 52c | 29.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef2c…be40backed Over | 43c | 25.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 57c | 23.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce8b…738abacked Over | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -6.8wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa25a…04b7backed Under | 57c | 18.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 145 | 46.2%67 W · 78 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Under | 67c | 15.53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 260 | 63.8%166 W · 94 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…6d07backed Under | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 516 | 56.6%292 W · 224 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. AthleticsPittsburgh Pirates won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Athletics (-3.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Athletics (-4.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. AthleticsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.