MLB · resolved market
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbac9a2947ce1253743db7faf32c32c380b353cfdfbb8e09530a9f3e79e6404d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,582
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,603
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,582 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 37c | 1,326$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.04 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…1d43backed Under | 2c | 1,200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Over | 61c | 819.67$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.67 | 431 | 53.6%231 W · 200 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…cd88backed Over | 66c | 606.06$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.06 | 662 | 50.2%332 W · 330 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 39c | 444.1$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.93 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…2b92backed Over | 62c | 437.36$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.98 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 57c | 357.9$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.3 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 39c | 299$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.61 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 48c | 277.92$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.33 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Over | 65c | 236.65$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.93 | 765 | 58%444 W · 321 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 38c | 223.95$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.27 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 59c | 151.3$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.6 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 79c | 147.87$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.55 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 54c | 130$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.9 | 2,149 | 50.2%1,079 W · 1,070 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 51c | 126.4$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.35 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 39c | 112.83$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 24c | 103.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 62c | 92.42$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.52 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab5…da6bbacked Under | 40c | 87.16$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.46 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a6…08bfbacked Under | 42c | 81.54$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc169…cb6abacked Over | 44c | 79.55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.55 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 40c | 76.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Over | 62c | 70$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 424 | 55.4%235 W · 189 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 32c | 47.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40e6…cb9fbacked Over | 60c | 44.23$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.23per pick | 46cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…6e8dbacked Over | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…61fdbacked Over | 61c | 40.08$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 274 | 54.4%149 W · 125 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7701…6ea2backed Over | 61c | 39.16$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 170 | 51.8%88 W · 82 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 39c | 37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2c…be40backed Over | 64c | 31.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Over | 62c | 29.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 39c | 28.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 906 | 69.9%633 W · 273 L | +94.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 64c | 27.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 61c | 20.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6a…5347backed Over | 63c | 19.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7268…78abbacked Over | 60c | 17.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 200 | 40%80 W · 120 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc70b…d2f2backed Over | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 112 | 55.4%62 W · 50 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. AthleticsPittsburgh Pirates won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Athletics (-3.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Athletics (-4.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. AthleticsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.