Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on June 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d4abfe8bec272f62434b6cfbdad11653ef2133ee616351bed040e0bc2bd46c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,125
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,282
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,125 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3621…9da2backed Yes | 8c | 254.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | +12.1wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 34c | 249.99$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 220.8$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.13 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 207.17$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.91 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a8…c5b9backed Yes | 37c | 203.28$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.92 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 66c | 171.62$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.07 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 165.85$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.16 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 35c | 148.92$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.92 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 32c | 115.31$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.27 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 36c | 100.48$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.17 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6a…b380backed Yes | 50c | 98.08$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.22 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 71c | 94$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.91 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 13c | 92.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 56c | 88.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.66 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507c…c876backed Yes | 53c | 83.89$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.21 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 58c | 82.87$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 52c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 76c | 74.11$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 52c | 69.79$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.56 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 69.37$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.49 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 43c | 66.48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.69 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 64c | 62.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 56c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.56 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 59.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.53 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 56c | 57.44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca69…7153backed No | 49c | 57.31$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.45 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes | 33c | 53.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 37c | 50.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 55c | 49.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 55c | 49.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 49.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 44c | 46.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…bdf5backed Yes | 44c | 44.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 44.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 46c | 43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.13 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 50c | 42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2401…0753backed No | 60c | 41.87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 66c | 40.7$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b0…1402backed Yes | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 163 | 39.9%65 W · 98 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 39c | 38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 49c | 37.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes | 57c | 35.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 57c | 34.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 61c | 34.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked No | 50c | 34.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa41…41ffbacked Yes | 58c | 34.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 37c | 34.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed No | 48c | 34.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 70c | 33.09$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97bd…f2adbacked No | 61c | 32.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcdf…8116backed No | 45c | 31.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 41c | 30.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 63c | 30.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f90…b54abacked Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d07…2b94backed Yes | 36c | 29.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 56c | 29.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…c2eabacked No | 55c | 29.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe985…8cc8backed No | 49c | 29.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…51cdbacked Yes | 58c | 27.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae6…7485backed Yes | 55c | 25.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 69 | 26.1%18 W · 51 L | -11.5wins | -0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 69c | 24.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 57c | 24.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 61c | 24.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 49c | 23.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 52c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 69c | 22.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed Yes | 51c | 21.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 56c | 20.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on June 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on June 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.