Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on June 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa00bb97ae9cdd2afd87d5f25919c7bb20bdfa579331f2d0e2d1b8ba5dd939b65
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,342
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,136
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,342 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb2a8…c5b9backed Yes | 68c | 823.84$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.5 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 23c | 403.38$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.6 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 47c | 296.13$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.04 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 7c | 288.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 8c | 229.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 47c | 220.8$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.96 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1465…e0dbbacked No | 73c | 208.33$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.06 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 48c | 191.63$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.65 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 25c | 182.81$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.84 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 18c | 168.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.88 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 18c | 166.31$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.72 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 47c | 162.02$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.35 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 66c | 138.44$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.45 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 79c | 128.13$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.82 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 70c | 112.63$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.14 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedba…002dbacked No | 72c | 111.27$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.57 | 96 | 79.2%76 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 17c | 107.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.8 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 27c | 97.91$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32c9…5a3ebacked Yes | 23c | 95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.15 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 34c | 92.51$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 61c | 90.93$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.47 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a9…d211backed Yes | 22c | 90.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.18 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba44…04d4backed No | 79c | 90$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 26c | 87.68$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.69 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 77c | 87.44$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.33 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 16c | 83.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.16 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 52c | 82.07$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.08 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 29c | 81.86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.32 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 35c | 77.73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 25c | 70$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 75c | 70$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 69.37$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.76 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca6…4beabacked Yes | 63c | 63.03$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 73 | 68.5%50 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 19c | 61.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.8 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 23c | 57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 25c | 55.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.33 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 72c | 52.23$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 28c | 52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.44 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked Yes | 29c | 51.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 23c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.75 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 35c | 46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…bdf5backed Yes | 26c | 45.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.85 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0a92backed Yes | 67c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d07…2b94backed Yes | 24c | 42.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x641c…b22fbacked Yes | 66c | 40.48$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0c…c7f6backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80db…4a73backed Yes | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 27c | 38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a96…cf5cbacked Yes | 30c | 36.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 62c | 35.58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 35c | 31.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.48 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 42c | 30.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 72c | 30.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 73c | 27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 74c | 27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe801…764fbacked No | 76c | 24.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 58 | 72.4%42 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 75cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 79c | 24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 70c | 21.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 76c | 20.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf440…7ab4backed No | 76c | 17.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf651…86b1backed Yes | 66c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 74c | 14.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 74c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 73c | 13.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on June 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.