Fifa International · resolved market
Donyell Malen: 1+ goals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d72de109e4da5504e454bed9f607f416d6632f6894982906aa7a633b818c11d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,057
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,908
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,057 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d13…3c2fbacked No | 71c | 1,845$1,306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.05 | 327 | 65.7%215 W · 112 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5452…d448backed No | 70c | 785.62$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236 | 464 | 64.9%301 W · 163 L | +26.6wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…ac88backed Yes | 30c | 416.67$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc790…cbd2backed Yes | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb711…1a27backed Yes | 31c | 307.1$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.2 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d54…6022backed No | 72c | 249.97$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.99 | 128 | 71.9%92 W · 36 L | +14.6wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6753…2b75backed Yes | 29c | 173.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x500e…bd16backed Yes | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 168 | 36.9%62 W · 106 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbda8…fc16backed Yes | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -4.0wins | -0.17per pick | 26cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8005…fb02backed Yes | 28c | 142.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb4…481dbacked Yes | 23c | 131.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48f8…36dbbacked Yes | 29c | 121.51$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 120 | 36.7%44 W · 76 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5527…27e0backed Yes | 29c | 120.1$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.83 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 29c | 117.17$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.98 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3109…4ef4backed Yes | 30c | 103.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 120 | 25.8%31 W · 89 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54f2…d0e3backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x815b…a1c7backed Yes | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 58 | 27.6%16 W · 42 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b74…0482backed No | 69c | 96.77$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 265 | 37.7%100 W · 165 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x155d…3ec8backed Yes | 29c | 96.73$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 255 | 32.9%84 W · 171 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…3c59backed Yes | 31c | 80.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 165 | 47.9%79 W · 86 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc82…c7c5backed No | 72c | 79.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa5…7cc9backed No | 69c | 74.53$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 148 | 60.1%89 W · 59 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…6e36backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 72c | 65.94$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 2,533 | 46.3%1,174 W · 1,359 L | +12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5080…d89abacked Yes | 29c | 65.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3e…c758backed Yes | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked No | 69c | 64.69$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 165 | 64.2%106 W · 59 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e9…00f8backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 186 | 37.6%70 W · 116 L | -13.3wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdec4…046fbacked Yes | 29c | 62.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 345 | 26.1%90 W · 255 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3852…e3a8backed Yes | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc20a…e328backed Yes | 28c | 53.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0525…c737backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e01…7ef0backed No | 75c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 379 | 71.2%270 W · 109 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed No | 72c | 29.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 172 | 71.5%123 W · 49 L | +12.8wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 70c | 22.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 2,796 | 56.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L | -9.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 75c | 17.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 205 | 61%125 W · 80 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23d2…ba31backed No | 73c | 15.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +148.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked No | 73c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 454 | 72.9%331 W · 123 L | +18.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Donyell Malen: 1+ goalsthis page
- Ayase Ueda: 1+ goalsNo won
- Ayase Ueda: 3+ goalsNo won
- Cody Gakpo: 1+ goalsNo won
- Cody Gakpo: 3+ goalsNo won
- Cody Gakpo: 3+ shotsNo won
- Crysencio Summerville: 1+ goalsYes won
- Crysencio Summerville: 3+ goalsNo won
- Daizen Maeda: 1+ goalsNo won
- Denzel Dumfries: 1+ assistsNo won
- Keito Nakamura: 1+ assistsNo won
- Memphis Depay: 1+ goalsNo won
- Ritsu Dōan: 1+ goalsNo won
- Takefusa Kubo: 1+ goalsNo won
- Takefusa Kubo: 2+ shotsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.