Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on August 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d8dbac9b7dcd0cfa2d2bc8462fa5c23136b1eb75b1d09f631e8ca28366865a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,628
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,247
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,628 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4581…91f9backed Yes | 0c | 8,653$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 35c | 1,050$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.95 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 38c | 937.7$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.58 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 59c | 606.71$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.66 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 65c | 431.1$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.23 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 62c | 406.49$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.75 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 62c | 271.6$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.97 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 63c | 245.95$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.81 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 40c | 217.28$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.45 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 24c | 175.75$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.68 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 141.32$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.3 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 61c | 138.38$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.53 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2250…4cd7backed Yes | 36c | 137.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.15 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 103$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.08 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 63c | 100.87$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.73 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa754…ec4bbacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ae…033dbacked Yes | 43c | 95.52$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.68 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 63c | 85.51$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 38c | 83.23$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 62c | 73$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.04 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 63c | 70$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.7 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…f288backed Yes | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11c9…232cbacked Yes | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 68c | 63.6$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.64 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 61.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.33 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd62b…ceecbacked No | 70c | 57.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -4.1wins | -0.26per pick | 63cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 66c | 57.42$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 27c | 55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed Yes | 36c | 51.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 63c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 65c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 36c | 47.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6986…5585backed No | 59c | 46.54$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 70c | 44.92$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 35c | 44.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 62c | 40.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 66c | 40.55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe3…6599backed Yes | 40c | 40.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 64c | 36.04$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 63c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…64bdbacked Yes | 35c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45f3…216cbacked Yes | 40c | 32.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 38c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd73…7481backed Yes | 38c | 30.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 64c | 29.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc9…6dfdbacked No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 205 | 74.6%153 W · 52 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 58c | 27.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 66c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 65c | 24.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb1…0f6ebacked No | 65c | 23.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 62c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce5…6233backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 135 | 59.3%80 W · 55 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 66c | 18.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 66c | 17.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on August 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on August 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on August 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.