Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on August 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8d3d17379daf00db5caccbd6eb9979b34cb0a5981bf41d046827fa8b0d53572
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,304
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,040
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,304 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 17c | 1,680$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.1 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 14c | 1,627$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.66 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 79c | 195$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.31 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 27c | 187.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.14 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 80c | 182.16$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 15c | 160.43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 27c | 151.49$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.33 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 16c | 148$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 16c | 124.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed Yes | 15c | 121.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa8…39c2backed Yes | 13c | 100.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 103 | 11.7%12 W · 91 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 14c | 98.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a2e…c5dbbacked Yes | 14c | 85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a06…174bbacked Yes | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked Yes | 16c | 75.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 36c | 62.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 36c | 60.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ee…83b0backed No | 67c | 44.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +29%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 79c | 39.27$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 77c | 36.32$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 79c | 32.4$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 74c | 31.93$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 79c | 22.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 78c | 18.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 78c | 15.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.34 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on August 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on August 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on August 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.