Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on August 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa32ee1538ef09f5f8a69f9f50c816bbed659662f2b90f9471dd581c201f4906b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,490
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,981
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,490 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 35c | 1,032$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670.33 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 59c | 742.36$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.52 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 59c | 737.94$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.43 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 17c | 468.51$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.12 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 39c | 437.38$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.58 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 65c | 430.05$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.39 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 65c | 416.99$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.07 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 35c | 211.59$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.99 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 26c | 205.56$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.91 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 69c | 200.5$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.17 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9d…e9f4backed Yes | 54c | 187.05$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.42 | 33 | 90.9%30 W · 3 L | +10.4wins | +0.32per pick | 59cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked Yes | 32c | 159.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.7 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 50c | 151.47$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.64 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 144.19$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.49 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 67c | 137.87$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.47 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 21c | 137.42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 38c | 137$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.73 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 37c | 136.11$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.17 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 65c | 133.5$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.15 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 47c | 119.4$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.87 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…63a4backed No | 39c | 118.96$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 115 | 25.2%29 W · 86 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ae…033dbacked Yes | 34c | 117.65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.65 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 16c | 116.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 77c | 111.97$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.7 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 110.73$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.82 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 64c | 103$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.68 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…94b4backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 65c | 99.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 27c | 99.61$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 44c | 99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.46 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 34c | 89.98$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.41 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 77c | 89.82$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 28c | 86.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 17c | 71.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 65c | 70$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.55 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.23 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 37c | 62.27$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.02 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…645abacked Yes | 34c | 62.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.15 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 71c | 59.14$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.76 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 66c | 54.44$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.19 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 41c | 54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed No | 23c | 53.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 50.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.78 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 62c | 50.28$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.17 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1044…d67abacked No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -6.2wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -58%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 77c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11c9…232cbacked Yes | 67c | 44.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 34c | 41.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 30c | 39.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 39c | 39.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 42c | 39.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 34c | 36.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.17 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 61c | 35.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 38c | 34.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 63c | 32.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71d0…b73abacked Yes | 73c | 32.24$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 63c | 32.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6e…b651backed Yes | 67c | 29.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 64c | 29.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd73…7481backed Yes | 39c | 28.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 70c | 27.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 61c | 27.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 67c | 27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 69c | 26.76$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 50c | 25.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed No | 69c | 20.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadce…a482backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 69cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 62c | 19.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2abe…6e2dbacked Yes | 77c | 14.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 101 | 66.3%67 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on August 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on August 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.