Stocks · resolved market
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $90-$95 in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d9dbe9a470b43921b21a4741520bef9510b00f2187b96e4aa3d27b49e67675f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,220
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,452
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,220 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 7,149$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 9c | 1,201$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,092.56 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 31c | 1,093$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$758.14 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked Yes | 36c | 908.93$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.5 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked Yes | 78c | 874.3$681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.1 | 351 | 51.6%181 W · 170 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 31c | 410.11$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.61 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…251cbacked Yes | 62c | 371.9$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 26c | 313.22$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.19 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef5…83cbbacked Yes | 49c | 300$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 26c | 203$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.76 | 59 | 64.4%38 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 51c | 200$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 68 | 64.7%44 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 20c | 177.54$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.79 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -22.2wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 61c | 173.39$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.07 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 7c | 167.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.2 | 98 | 35.7%35 W · 63 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 12c | 166.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 91 | 24.2%22 W · 69 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0388…cc99backed No | 51c | 150$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x414e…5fb7backed No | 53c | 150$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a0…5cc4backed No | 22c | 149.48$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.69 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 70c | 126.24$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.23 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 75c | 109.2$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.33 | 120 | 35%42 W · 78 L | -10.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -38%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba0d…c462backed Yes | 39c | 102.22$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4002…e2adbacked Yes | 51c | 100.48$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0662…85a6backed Yes | 25c | 100.18$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ca…4ac0backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 19c | 76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x871e…6566backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.15 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e3…f314backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1139…0471backed Yes | 48c | 46.22$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80eb…aa0abacked Yes | 49c | 45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +105.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb20a…914fbacked Yes | 62c | 45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 61c | 44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82cc…c694backed Yes | 78c | 40.95$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9026…fd59backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked No | 42c | 37.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2acd…b08fbacked Yes | 58c | 31.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc22…4557backed Yes | 60c | 24.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa78…f40bbacked Yes | 50c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 137 | 51.1%70 W · 67 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $90-$95 in 2025?this page
- Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $100-$105 in 2025?No won
- Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $105-$110 in 2025?No won
- Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $110-$115 in 2025?No won
- Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $115-$120 in 2025?No won
- Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $120-$125 in 2025?No won
- Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $85-$90 in 2025?No won
- Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $95-$100 in 2025?No won
- Will Netflix (NFLX) close at <$85 in 2025?No won
- Will Netflix (NFLX) close at >$125 in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.